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Let’s get defensive, folks. We’re running out of ways to improve our fantasy rosters as we approach money weeks, but tinkering with our team defense is always a game.
In general, fantasy managers tend to approach team defenses in one of two ways: we draft and hold a high-ranked D/ST, giving the position little attention during the season, or we prefer to play year-round defenses to run, streaming based on matchups.
The problem with the first method is that we are collectively bad at identifying good defenses during the preseason. This year, the consensus top five consisted of the Niners, Ravens, Jets, Browns and Cowboys. None of these D/STs are currently relevant in fantasy; none are in the overall top 10.
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The problem with streaming isn’t the concept itself, but rather our execution. We often focus on not quite the right things when we do it. We look for quality defenses for losing teams. It’s an approach that can certainly lead us to the right destination – picking Will Levis has been a winning move – but there’s a more reliable way to get where we want to go.
Fantasy scoring in D/ST is driven almost entirely by splashy, game-changing events – turnovers, sacks, defensive touchdowns – which aren’t actually the easiest things to predict. But we know that these events are much more likely to occur when a quarterback drops back to succeed. We don’t get sacks and pick-sixes on handoffs. It’s no coincidence that Dallas, Cleveland and Las Vegas – the three teams currently leading the NFL in pass attempts – have allowed the seventh, second and fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
When streaming defenses, the simplest approach with the greatest benefit is to focus purely on passing volume. We’re 13 weeks into the season at this point, so we certainly know which teams are asking their QBs to drop back at the highest rates.
The league’s top defenses aren’t guaranteed to be elite fantasy assets, however. Philadelphia is the NFL’s top D in total yardage by a decent margin and they rank fourth in points against, but they are only 10th in fantasy scoring. In our play, the Eagles have only achieved two double-digit point totals, which is nothing special.
By now you may be sensing what’s coming: we’re about to hit you with a short list of defenses with extremely favorable late-season fantasy schedules, three of which are terrible in real life. It would take quite a bit of courage for, say, the Bengals to start a must-win fantasy week. So if you want to lose honorably with Philly, go for it.
Arizona Cardinals – 30% scheduled (SEA, NE, at CAR, at LAR)
The Cards are actually a legitimate defense, so you can feel good about this team. Their schedule is particularly friendly for the next two weeks. Seattle and New England rank seventh and 10th, respectively, in pass attempts on the season and fifth and sixth in fantasy points allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals – 25% (at DAL, at TEN, CLE, DEN)
You hate this one, right? Of course you do. Cincinnati’s defense is objectively bad. But this team’s three upcoming opponents have been outrageously generous to opposing defenses in fantasy, and Denver is one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league. It’s an incredible setup.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 7% (at TEN, NYJ, at LV, TEN)
Yeah, um…I’m not sure I’d actually pull the trigger on a Jaguars ad. It feels like that’s one or two steps beyond recklessness. Still, that schedule is nearly perfect in terms of fantasy, including two matchups with Levis, the NFL’s sixth-ranked QB.
New Orleans Saints – 74% (at NYG, WAS, at GB, LV)
It’s the bookends we like here, not so much the Week 15-16 matchups, which are responsible for a 47% spike in the unit’s total with the Giants on deck, but which the unit crowd could see next week valleys. Furthermore, the Saints are like an AI-generated team, completely disconnected from normality. We never know what’s coming, other than we know the Giants and Raiders are on the schedule, which is great news.
