After four years under Joe Biden, who enthusiastically called himself “the most pro-union president in American history,” employers and labor groups alike are heading into newly-elected President Donald Trump’s second term unsure of what lies ahead.
Although his nominee for Secretary of Labor has received bipartisan praise and a pro-labor record, Trump’s threats to deport millions, impose tariffs and weaken worker protections have many in the labor movement wary prepared for what his term of office will bring.
This is what a second Trump administration could mean for the labor market.
What is the National Labor Relations Board and what could happen to it under Trump?
The National Labor Relations Board is the federal agency charged with ensuring the right of private workers to unionize or otherwise organize to improve their working conditions. Under Jennifer Abruzzo, whom Biden appointed to lead the NLRB as general counsel, the board took “a fairly innovative and aggressive approach” to enforcing protections, said labor attorney Benjamin Dictor, who represents several unions, including the United Auto Workers and a local Teamsters. .
Abruzzo took a comprehensive approach to labor law that favored workers. For example, she has implemented a ban on non-compete agreements, which limit someone’s ability to get a new job after leaving a post. She also urged regional offices to pursue broader solutions for disadvantaged workers and successfully sought a ban on private public meetings, with employers requiring their staff to listen to anti-union arguments.
Dictor and others expect the Trump administration to quickly replace Abruzzo with a more employer-friendly general counsel. This kind of ping-ponging of priorities from administration to administration is typical, but the change is expected to be even more pronounced given Abruzzo’s new approach.
Trump also has a clear path toward securing a Republican majority on the five-member board itself, allowing his administration to reverse the gains unions have made under Biden. The Labor Council is likely to seek to reverse decisions that expedited the union election process, pressured employers to voluntarily recognize and bargain with unions, banned confidentiality and non-disparagement provisions, and banned gatherings in front of captive audiences, said Adam Primm, a union spokesman. lawyer representing employers.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) led a last-ditch effort last week to cement Democratic control of the administration for the next two years, but the effort failed when the Senate failed to pass a second term for one term. of Biden’s nominees.
Trump has promised to deport millions of people. What would that mean for the economy?
A major deportation effort could have a significant impact on industries that rely heavily on immigrant workers, including agriculture, construction and hospitality.
New York’s Center for Migration Studies estimates that as many as 8.3 million immigrants working in the US are here illegally, representing more than 5% of the workforce.
There is growing concern among employers that there will be a significant increase in workplace raids, employment eligibility document audits and other immigration enforcement actions against companies under Trump, said George Howard, an attorney at Quarles & Brady.
Labor advocates, meanwhile, worry about the opposite: enforcement against unscrupulous employers will fall by the wayside.
For example, migrant worker advocates expect Trump to eliminate a Biden program that granted work permits to undocumented workers at companies under investigation for workplace violations — an effort intended to encourage cooperation in investigations into safety, wage and and other labor violations.
Attorney Yvonne Medrano of Los Angeles-based Bet Tzedek Legal Services, a nonprofit legal advocacy group, said there are concerns that employers of undocumented immigrants will feel emboldened to exploit workers if the government softens efforts to crack down on wage theft, child labor and eradicate disability. other violations.
Trump has said he will impose sweeping tariffs. How might they influence American workers?
Trump has said he will impose sweeping tariffs on key trading partners including Canada, Mexico and China once he takes office. The effects of these tariffs could affect American workers in several ways.
Prices of certain goods in sectors hit by tariffs would rise, largely raising the cost of living and eroding workers’ purchasing power, unless wages rise commensurately, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Higher prices would have an outsized effect on lower-income workers because more of their budgets are spent on food and clothing, Zandi said.
And it is likely that countries that face US tariffs will retaliate with their own, as China did during Trump’s first term. The Trump trade war led in his first term created higher costs for consumers and uncertainty for the U.S. automotive, agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
Companies that rely on imported goods such as machine parts and industrial supplies will be forced to pay more for those goods, skyrocketing their costs and potentially forcing them to cut jobs, Zandi said.
Trump has picked Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a pro-union Republican, to lead the Department of Labor. What does that mean for employees?
The union-friendly track record of Trump’s pick for Labor secretary has fueled unrest among the Republican Party, with several Republican senators voicing concerns. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is known for being one of only three Republican lawmakers to co-sponsor legislation known as the PRO Act, which would have significantly expanded labor rights, including measures that increased penalties for labor law violations by employers and broadened participation in trade unions.
Trade groups have also highlighted concerns about the choice.
“IFA looks forward to ensuring that the job-killing PRO Act and the Biden-era joint employer standard have no place in the new administration,” Matt Haller, CEO of the International Franchise Assn., said in a recent statement. He was referring to an effort by Biden to expand the rules for when two or more companies should be considered employers of a group of workers.
While a pro-employee appointment has raised concerns, attorney Patrick Muldowney, who represents employers on labor issues, said the appointment does not pose a tangible threat to employers.
“I don’t see this moving the needle very far,” Muldowney said.
The Department of Labor administers federal laws that govern minimum hourly and overtime wages, as well as employment discrimination protections, workplace safety regulations, and unemployment insurance. Its reach is less visible in states like California, which have implemented stronger protections than those offered at the federal level.
Labor advocates still expect the Trump administration under Chavez-DeRemer to pursue anti-labor changes.
Judy Conti, director of government affairs for the National Employment Law Project, said she expects the Trump administration will relax enforcement of safety rules, limit overtime eligibility and make it harder for gig economy workers to gain status as employees to acquire.
“Chavez-DeRemer’s track record shows that she understands the value of policies that strengthen workers’ rights and economic security,” Rebecca Dixon, president and CEO of NELP, said in a news release last month. “But the Trump administration’s agenda is fundamentally at odds with these principles.”
Her “true commitment to employees will be tested,” Dixon said.
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
