The headline of the Atlanta Falcons’ latest announcement leaned more and more toward probability.
The subtext on Tuesday night was more surprising.
The Falcons didn’t just bench veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins for 14 games after signing him to a deal worth $90 million, guaranteed at signing
They also gave the rookie they drafted eighth overall the keys to the castle – indefinitely.
“After review, we have made the decision that Michael Penix will be the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback,” head coach Raheem Morris said in a statement. “This was a football decision and we are fully focused on preparing the team for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.”
The Falcons may be focusing on the Giants’ play, but the rest of the league is watching with at least as much interest as to what’s next for Cousins.
Conversations with five league sources covering coaching, executive and representation backgrounds gave Yahoo Sports context in the hours after the Falcons’ announcement. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the competitive advantage of discussing the Falcons’ roster moves.
Here’s a snapshot of the league’s momentum on some of the biggest questions surrounding the move.
Will the Falcons play Cousins again?
Barring an injury to Penix, the answer from all corners of the league was a resounding no. Sources didn’t believe the Falcons would shuffle quarterbacks or even give Penix a tryout before naming him the starter. Cousins’ recent five-game stretch, with nine interceptions to just one touchdown, helped solidify that decision. But the patchwork of reasons includes a play-caller and a quarterback struggling to find success together; an Achilles tendon repair hangover that tends to linger for the first season after the injury; and a desire to look ahead with a healthy runway for Penix rather than focusing on sunk costs. One source also mentioned the belief that Cousins would not wholeheartedly agree to a decision to fight for his job in December should the team come up with a week-to-week proposal.
League sources unanimously agreed with the Falcons’ decision to change quarterbacks now as Atlanta trails the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South race at 7-7. What they disagree on: Whether signing Cousins was a risk the Falcons were worth.
Were the Falcons right to sign Cousins and Penix in the same offseason?
It’s easy to say that a quarterback’s survival through fourteen games guarantees failure. And from a results perspective, so does the Falcons’ move. From a process point of view? Most teams would prefer to have multiple arrows in finding a serviceable quarterback if they can afford one, and one source even talked about the benefit Penix and the Falcons could gain by resting him for 14 games without the pressure that others draft picks encountered.
No. 1 pick Caleb Williams has absorbed a whopping 58 sacks with the Chicago Bears, as Penix learned from the sidelines. New England Patriots rookie QB and No. 3 pick Drake Maye started taking hits later as New England waited to start him until Week 6, but he’s nonetheless been under pressure since with 14 dropbacks per game, which isn’t far off the 15 .2 feeding Williams. league-high 213 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.
Waiting for Penix to start is a well-known decision in the competition. Having Penix in house was more complicated, but also respected. Want to have your cousins sign an expensive contract in advance? An NFC executive said the Falcons were positioning themselves to likely be subject to criticism for poor process once they signed both. If neither quarterback found success, let alone both, then their decision to invest top capital in both deserved scrutiny.
“They have backed themselves into a corner,” the director texted. “The only way they could look good was if Kirk played well/got injured and the kid came in and played well.
“If they move Kirk, they’ll still pay him $62.5 million for one year. Setting the child up early forced them to take this step. If they trade or cut Kirk and he goes somewhere and plays well, they’ll look bad again. Not a nice situation to be in.”
What are the financial implications for Atlanta?
The Falcons owe Cousins a guaranteed $27.5 million through 2025. If he’s still on their roster by the fifth day of the 2025 league year — which falls on March 16, 2025 — they’ll owe him another $10 million the roster bonus in early 2026, a source said. with knowledge of the contract. Cousins also has a full no-trade clause that gives him plenty of autonomy in choosing his team for 2025. That could hurt the Falcons if Cousins follows a similar path to Russell Wilson.
After the Denver Broncos released Wilson last March, Wilson signed with (and now starts for) the Pittsburgh Steelers. He did not help the Broncos with the compensation language that required them to pay for his contract that was not covered by another team. The Steelers will pay Wilson the veteran minimum of $1.21 million this season. The Broncos will pay him another $37.7 million in 2024. Expect the Falcons to similarly be on the hook for $26.3 million of the $27.5 million next year if Cousins plays elsewhere.
In theory, even if a team signs Cousins to a multi-year deal, they could creatively structure it to essentially “borrow” $23.3 million from the Falcons in 2025 over the life of the deal. Even with Penix on a rookie contract, that will test the Falcons. One league source believed Cousins would have more leverage on a multi-year deal than Wilson.
Where will Cousins play in 2025?
Executive and agent sources agreed it is unrealistic to confidently bet on any outcome now. There continues to be movement at head coach, general manager and quarterback on at least six teams. The concept cycle has yet to really get going. Teams will have to assess their options. If they do, Cousins will have an advantage: the relatively limited supply of starting quarterbacks expected to hit the market in 2025 via free agency and draft.
“Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are the two starters [heading to free agency] and then it’s a number of guys who have failed,” the source said. “The journey is terrible. The two guys at the top are not first-rounders going into the first round simply because there is a need, but they have a lot of holes in their game.”
There will be teams more interested in a veteran with Cousins’ skills and a proven resume than the upside of drafting Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. This isn’t a draft with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and more. It’s possible a team could want Cousins as a bridge quarterback — expect Daniel Jones to fill that role as well after his recent release from the Giants — to buy time for good-but-not-yet-great 2025 prospects.
Cousins’ recent struggles will give some teams pause. But he played well as recently as the first half of this season and has earned four Pro Bowl berths, including as recently as 2022.
In his favor will be years of consistency as a solid quarterback and a league-wide belief that mobility returns more in the second year after Achilles surgery than in the first. Teams could also convince themselves that Cousins’ slump had as much to do with the struggle for a new play-caller and weapons as it did with the quarterback’s sheer ability. The right fit for Cousins and his next team matters.
Sources pointed to the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and New York Giants as possible places where Cousins could start immediately in 2025. Dark-horse candidates include the San Francisco 49ers, where Cousins was able to reunite with head coach Kyle Shanahan for 12 years. after their two seasons of overlap in Washington and the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are expected to (and should) work with Brock Purdy in 2025 – but they are a team with high expectations that like a strong backup and, if they wanted to, Cousins as a pawn in the negotiations if Purdy’s window for a mega-deal opens this offseason.
The interpersonal dynamics in Minnesota could complicate a reunion so soon after head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made the move from Cousins. But the league isn’t missing the irony of the potential football matchup that a reunion would bring, as Darnold will likely rule for more than the Vikings are willing to pay, and injured rookie JJ McCarthy’s rehab timeline will create uncertainty.
Cousins will also have to decide whether he wants to continue playing in his 14th season at age 37.
If he does? For the second straight season, he will be one of the biggest names in the quarterback market.
