There is a less obvious type of fantasy football drafting advice that I think more people should be aware of at this time of year; When deciding between lineup choices, don’t just go with the player who will have the highest score in the game (projected, of course), but also consider the player who will be most playable in real life.
Take the Broncos and Chargers for example tonight. According to NFL.com, the Broncos currently have a 91% chance of making the playoffs; with a win or a draw, Denver secures a spot in the playoffs. If they lose, their chances drop to 85%. The Chargers are in a similar boat; they currently have an 87% chance. For profit 97%; at a loss, 72%.
Both teams would be in a good position with a win, but the sweating starts with a defeat. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, this matchup itself doesn’t sound exceptionally good for a fantasy football bonanza.
Nevertheless, it’s a different game to take into account, so let’s get to the story of the tape.
Should we worry about Ladd McConkey being stranded on Surtain Island?
I mentioned in the intro above that this game, while very important to the teams on both sides, is a bit devoid of viable fantasy talent. In fact, the quarterbacks and their No. 1 targets are probably as good as it gets.
Which brings us to McConkey, who claims to be the best rookie wide receiver on this side after Brian Thomas Jr.
McConkey has battled through injuries over the past three weeks and delivered three consecutive double-digit fantasy performances. He has been Justin Herbert’s first target more often than not and has shown the ability to run routes and catch, making him a coveted wide receiver coming out of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Of course, if you open McConkey in your fantasy app, you’ll see a distinctive red “Den (30th)” next to his name. Not what you want to see next to one of your players in the fantasy playoffs.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a problem all season, and a lot of that has been due to the play of outside cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has been a problem for opponents this season; he ranks third among 216 cornerbacks in overall positional grade and second in coverage, according to PFF. He has four interceptions to his name this season.
But take heart, McConkey executives. The rookie has one thing working for him: He’s been a gambling connoisseur all season. McConkey has played on more than 70% of the Chargers’ passing snaps this season, meaning if LA implements the same usage, McConkey will avoid Surtain’s outside coverage for the vast majority of his reps. And since the Chargers don’t have many threatening weapons on offense, they should use movement in this game and move McConkey as much as possible.
So while McConkey’s ceiling may be lower than normal given the overall matchup, he should provide the same safe floor he has for most of the season. He clearly has WR2 advantage in this game.
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Starting stone could be a Smartt move
(Sorry, I had to.)
The tight end position has let us down again this season. We were hoping for a feature that could earn 10+ points per week, spread across different options. Instead, we’d like to get six points in a given week. Unless you have Brock Bowers, Trey McBride (can someone please give that guy a receiving touchdown) or George Kittle, chances are your fantasy ears are peeled for a higher upside option.
If you’re struggling to fill your tight spot, Stone Smartt may be able to help you tonight.
The 6-foot-4 Smartt has been promoted to the Chargers’ offense of late, thanks to an injury to starting tight end Will Dissly. Justin Herbert and the offense have prioritized tight ends this season, especially with the emergence of Dissly, so our curiosity was naturally piqued when Smartt was named the starter. It was a bit surprising to see Smartt immediately get into a big workload, collecting five of six targets over 50 yards. But given the lack of threatening receiving options on the Chargers, perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise.
If Smartt were to play in any other position, this would be a desperate start. But if you need help at TE and need a floor game with room for more (thanks to the playoff narrative surrounding this game, of course), consider Stone Smartt, which is available in 96% of leagues.
Could Bo Nix be a playoff hero?
Bo Nix’s evolution this season from an age-based punchline to a viable — perhaps even above-average — NFL starter has been great to watch. The same goes for him in fantasy. Nix has done damage on the ground, through the air and both at the same time at different points this season. And sure, there have been some questionable moments — he’s coming off back-to-back games with multiple interceptions — but for the most part, Nix has been off to a solid start this season.
Think back to Week 6, the last time the Broncos faced the Chargers, Nix scored 21.74 fantasy points, threw two touchdowns and ran for 61 yards on the ground. You’d expect Nix to want to repeat or surpass that feat, as this is essentially the battle for second place in the AFC West.
This Chargers defense was once very scary, but it allowed Baker Mayfield to light it up for 288 yards and four passing touchdowns, good for 29.02 fantasy points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton will likely pull out all the stops to crush his division rival, and Nix should benefit immediately.
If you made it to the fantasy semifinals with Bo Nix, you’d probably still start him tonight. So consider this your endorsement of him for the rest of the playoffs, both in Week 16 and beyond in the fantasy championships, when Nix will go up against every quarterback’s dream: the Cincinnati Bengals defense.
