Set your fantasy football lineups for Week 16 with Dalton Del Don’s key starting/sitting advice for every game on the line.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sits: CJ Stroud
Stroud has been a major disappointment in fantasy this season, and even more so away from home. He’s averaged just 202.4 passing yards and 1.0 TD on the road this season, and he’s struggled outside of a dome his entire career. Stroud is looking for his first QB finish in the top five since week 12 of the 2023 season. Kansas City has been much more vulnerable against the pass since Jaylen Watson went down, but the Texans have the same implied team total (19.5 points) this week as the Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Sits: Najee Harris
Harris was defeated by Jaylen Warren and finished with less than half of RB chances (7-of-16) last week for the second straight game. Harris remains the favorite at the goal line, but the Steelers offense has struggled without George Pickens. The Ravens have allowed just 63.8 RB rush yards per game – the second fewest in the league. Look for Harris alternatives this week.
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Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start: Jerome Ford
Thompson-Robinson’s start is bad news for Jerry Jeudy, but Ford is a sneaky pick if you need a RB this week. He saw 84% of the snaps and every RB opportunity after Nick Chubb went down with a broken foot last week, and the Bengals have given up the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the past five weeks. Pierre Strong and D’Onta Foreman could also see work, but the Browns would have to switch to run-heavy with DTR.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Start: Malik Nabers
Nabers surpassed a 40% target share last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done so more than twice. It was also Nabers’ eighth match, in which he achieved a target share of more than 40% on the first reading. Nabers’ role expanded last week, as he saw season highs in routes, targets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot, where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been beaten up for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points for wide receivers over the past five weeks (and they just faced Desmond Ridder), so he’ll get a favorable (and quick) matchup indoors on Sunday (even with AJ Terrell shadowing him ).
Drew Lock is an upgrade from Tommy DeVito’s low ADOT/high pocket combo. Nabers has a 28.4% target share through two games with Lock this season. The Giants have a modest team total of 16.5 points, so Nabers’ ceiling is likely limited. But he’s still a top-20 WR this week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Adam Thielen
Thielen led Carolina in routes despite the return of Jalen Coker last week, seeing 67% of his snaps in the slot. Xavier Legette is likely out this week and Coker hasn’t had much practice, so Thielen should be extra busy on Sunday. The Cardinals have shut down outside receivers but have struggled to defend the slot, where they have allowed the second-highest target percentage (51%) this season. Thielen also ranks in the top 25 in fantasy points per route against zone coverage, which Arizona has used at the 10th highest rate in the league.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Start: Jared Goff
Goff is off to a safer start when he’s at home (and indoors), but he’s posted a 9.0 YPA on the road this season. He has a TD:INT ratio of 10:1 over the past three games, and Goff could pass even more with David Montgomery out and numerous injuries on Detroit’s defense. The Lions have a healthy implied team total of 29.5 points, and the Bears’ pass defense has since fallen from first in EPA/dropback allowed weeks 1-8 to 27th.
Sit Caleb Williamswhich ranks last among the 34 qualified quarterbacks in YPA (4.9!) against man coverage this season, which the Lions have used at the league’s highest rate (42.3%).
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Anthony Richardson
Richardson has averaged nine rush attempts over four games since returning as a starter, including four carries inside the five. AR continues to struggle with accuracy issues, but no quarterback is throwing deeper downfield, and he has faced the highest pressure% in the league since reclaiming the starting job in Week 11; Richardson ranks first in Big Time Throw% (9.3) when kept clean during that period. Injuries have hit a Tennessee high school that ranks 28th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 10. Titans opponents have the fourth-highest passing percentage over expectations over the past month. The Colts are expected to score 23.5 points this week, so Richardson has the advantage.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
Start: Cooper Kupp & Matthew Stafford
Kupp has taken a clear backseat to Puka Nacua, and he’s coming off a goose egg during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Kupp’s defense had both teams struggling to pass in a rain-filled game that combined for zero touchdowns, but he is now the WR57 over the past three weeks.
Kupp clearly isn’t the same player he once was, and Nacua has emerged as a true No. 1, but he’ll get an excellent matchup this week to bounce back. The Jets have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 9. Additionally, New York has given up the most fantasy points to the slot. where Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season.
Stafford had a TD:INT ratio of 10:0 over his previous four games before last week’s rainy scrimmage, which totaled just 18 points. The Rams have an implied team total of 25.5 points, and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers could make it a shootout on Sunday. The Jets are a pass-funnel defense that has shut down the run but allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the past five weeks. New York ranks last in defensive EPA since Robert Saleh’s firing (they were previously ranked fifth). Jets opponents also have the third highest success rate above expectations in the past month. Stafford is a top-12 QB this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Temper expectations: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson is the RB17 in the “expert consensus ranks” this week, so you may not have better alternatives. But Robinson’s expectations should be lowered versus the Eagles’ defense, which is allowing its lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t had a running back rush for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles have given up the fewest rushing schedule-adjusted fantasy points. to RBs in the past five weeks. Robinson’s role remains strong (and he’s always a threat to score a few goals on the goal line), but he’s averaged just 38.7 rushing yards in losses this year, and the Commanders are up 3.5 points on Sunday underdogs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Start: DK Metcalf
Metcalf saw his fewest goals (three) in a game in which he hasn’t been injured since his rookie season last week, but he’ll be in a nice spot to bounce back on Sunday. Geno Smith (and Metcalf) returned to full practice this week, as Metcalf would otherwise have been a bench candidate with Sam Howell starting. Metcalf leads Seattle this season in target percentage (19.2%) versus zone coverage, which Minnesota has used at the fifth-highest rate in the league (77.0%). The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers this season, but they’ve yielded the second-fewest ANY/A (5.1) to the slot since Week 8 (where Jaxon Smith-Njigba connected on 86% of his routes this season walked). years).
The Vikings’ opponents have the league’s highest pass success rate (64%) and are averaging the most pass attempts this season (37.9). Metcalf is due for touchdown regression (and more targets!) and should remain in fantasy lineups this week.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sits: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson has averaged 16.8 fantasy points (would be the RB5 this season) in wins, but only 9.9 (RB31) in losses this year. The Patriots are a whopping 14-point underdogs this week, with a modest team total of 16.5 points. The Bills have been much less vulnerable to fantasy backs over the last five weeks, and this matchup will likely be slow. Look for alternatives to Stevenson this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
Start: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has seen the second-most targets (45) and air yards (447) in the league over the past month – and that was when Desmond Ridder started last week. Aidan O’Connell is leaning towards playing on Sunday, and his return would be a boost for Meyers. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and this matchup should be quick. Meyers’ target percentage has increased to 25.5% against man coverage this season, which Jacksonville has held at the fourth-highest percentage in the league (38.2%).
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Start: Juaun Jennings
Jennings is coming off a quiet fantasy performance, but he saw a 29% target percentage and suffered from a game where the weather heavily affected the passing. The 49ers have been left to fend for themselves No. 5 runs back this season with Isaac Guerendo injured, which could allow San Francisco to pass more than usual this week. Jennings owns a 35.5% target share on the first read since Brandon Aiyuk went down (Week 7), and he ranks fifth in yards per route (2.64) this season. Jennings is a top-15 WR this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Start: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has enjoyed a healthy Mike Evans as he threw seven touchdowns over the last two weeks. He should keep things going on Sunday night against an injury-riddled Dallas defense (albeit one that performed much better with Micah Parsons). The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points per dropback this season, and the Buccaneers have the fifth-highest team implied total this week (27.5 points).
Cooper Rush is a sleeper at QB this week, as he faces a pass-funneling Tampa Bay defense that blitzes heavily.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Sits: Kendre Miller
Miller has impressed in limited duties this season and should lead New Orleans’ backfield Monday night with Alvin Kamara likely out. But he has a tough lineup in a thoroughly depleted Saints team with one of the lowest projected totals of the season (13.5 points) this week. Spencer Rattler starts at QB, and New Orleans’ two best WRs may be Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis. The Saints are 14.5-point underdogs, and the Packers haven’t had a running back rush for 75 yards since Week 8. Jamaal Williams figures to be more involved in a slow game, so Miller will be a fringe starter on Monday night.
