The news
Thailand this week hosted two regional meetings with Asian leaders aimed at ending a bloody civil war in Myanmar that has led to a spiraling political and security crisis.
China, Bangladesh, Laos, India and Thailand – the five countries that share a border with Myanmar – met with members of the country’s ruling military junta to discuss plans for possible peace negotiations.
Members of the ASEAN grouping of Southeast Asian countries also met in Bangkok to discuss plans to resolve the nearly five-year conflict and the junta’s plans to hold elections in 2025.
Myanmar has been embroiled in civil war since February 2021 after a military coup toppled the democratically elected government, and the junta has since fought to maintain control over armed resistance groups.
The conflict has displaced millions of people, including Rohingya refugees who have fled across the border into Bangladesh, which has the world’s largest refugee camp. China and Thailand have also condemned reports of widespread human and drug trafficking at their borders with Myanmar.
SIGNALS
Junta’s election promises are ‘a trap of diplomacy’
Myanmar’s military junta has promised to hold elections next year, but experts say these promises should be viewed with skepticism. Thailand said this week it had signaled to the junta that all elections must be free and fair, with the country’s foreign minister emphasizing that any vote must be “inclusive” for the whole country, adding that neighboring countries of Myanmar would advise, but not interfere. Still, the junta’s promises to hold elections should not be trusted, Myanmar expert David Scott Mathieson told Deutsche Welle: “This is a pitfall of diplomacy. If an interlocutor takes the preparations for the elections seriously, the country is doomed to long-term conflict.”
The timing could be right for peace talks, and Thailand is crucial
Myanmar’s military has “taken a back seat” in recent years, Time reported, and experts say the conflict has likely reached its endgame, with the junta under pressure on several fronts. In April, Thailand’s previous prime minister told Reuters he saw an opening for talks, and a recent series of ASEAN summits focused on the conflict signals a renewed effort by the bloc to reach a peace deal. Bangkok has a strong incentive to reach a deal: the countries share a nearly 1,500-mile border and Thailand has taken in an estimated two million migrants, making it the country most affected by the conflict outside Myanmar. But for the talks to be useful, “Bangkok will have to be more engaged and assertive,” focusing not just on aid but also on peace and democracy, a veteran Thai journalist told Deutsche Welle.
China is changing its approach to the conflict
China has consistently supported both sides in the Myanmar conflict, with weapons coming from the country held by both the ruling junta and rebel groups, wrote Radio Free Asia – in an effort to ensure that the Chinese government always turns positive assessed. However, Beijing has made a renewed effort to encourage peace talks in light of the recent victories of Myanmar’s rebels; because it wants to prevent the total collapse of the regime and protect its economic assets in the country. Two major rebel groups praised China’s mediation efforts when they announced their willingness to hold peace talks in recent months. However, political analysts told Voice of America that foreign pressure was unlikely to lead to a ceasefire: “The junta’s refusal to share power remains the main obstacle,” one said. “Peace brought about by pressure cannot last long.”
