For NFL teams, quarterback succession plans can be one of the most difficult procedures to run smoothly. Just ask the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta surprised people around the league during the 2024 NFL Draft when it signed former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick, a month after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal. The decision under investigation was later defended by team management as a safety measure to avoid quarterback purgatory.
More from Sportico.com
The plan seemed to be for the 24-year-old Penix to study under Cousins before eventually taking over the QB1 role. But eight months later, with Cousins in the first year of his contract and the team’s first playoff appearance in seven years still within reach, the Falcons already appear ready to move on. After disappointing Cousins on Monday night, the latest in a string of underperformances, Atlanta announced it would bench the veteran in favor of Penix, who will make his first career start next Sunday against the New York Giants.
“You see the consequences when carefully thought-out plans go wrong,” former NFL super agent Leigh Steinberg said in a telephone interview. “That must have been a painful decision for the coach and the front office.”
The tug has suddenly destabilized the team’s quarterback situation while creating a potentially costly transition for the Falcons, who are on the hook to pay Cousins a guaranteed $27.5 million next season regardless of whether the 14 starts he makes has made this season, for him to be with the franchise. In the event the Falcons were to cut or trade him, his dead cap hit would likely still affect their flexibility in building rosters through 2026.
“If you don’t play your franchise quarterback in a critical circumstance with heavily guaranteed money because you think you have a better chance of winning with (Penix), it’s like a hand grenade dropped in the middle of this well-thought-out plan thrown. said Steinberg, who has represented a record eight No. 1 draft picks, including former Falcons star quarterback Steve Bartkowski.
The Green Bay Packers are arguably the best in the league when it comes to quarterback succession planning. For more than 20 years, they were led at the position by current and future Pro Football Hall of Famers in Brett Favre (now retired) and Aaron Rodgers (now with the New York Jets). Packers starter Jordan Love, who replaced Rodgers last year after serving as a backup for three seasons, is eligible for Pro Bowl honors and continues to show promise. At least enough for the franchise to sign him to a four-year, $220 million deal (including a record $75 million signing bonus), making him one of the highest-paid players in the league.
Every NFL team strives for that level of continuity and stability. It is difficult to implement. Cases like the Kansas City Chiefs selecting reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 first round while still having then-veteran Alex Smith are rarer than gold. It’s more common for general managers to slot a potential long-term starter into the draft and pray they’ll be ready when their number is called. Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones and Mitchell Trubisky all failed to adequately replace their team’s established players.
The Falcons’ opponent has experienced his own quarterback drama this week as he still tries to fill the shoes left by Eli Manning five years ago. The Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts are additional teams that could be eyeing a new franchise quarterback in April.
So the Falcons are just the latest team to illustrate why seamless quarterback succession plans are difficult to pull off successfully. Atlanta has been in a hole since trading its all-time passing leader Matt Ryan in 2022. The offseason move to pay Cousins more than anyone in this year’s free-agent class and select Penix despite other positional needs may have been an overcorrection. Now the team is staring at a potential dead cap number of $65 million, which would be second all-time behind Russell Wilson, who left Denver earlier this year with a total dead cap value of $85 million, the largest in the history of the N.F.L. However, if the Falcons release Cousins after June 1, they can spread the hit over two years and instead take on a $40 million cap hit next season.
Although the Falcons have pushed the button on their succession plan earlier than expected, the left-handed Penix could rise to the occasion despite the limited number of reps in the preseason. The decision to give guaranteed money to a then 35-year-old Cousins who suffered an Achilles injury can be forgiven if Penix can remind people why he was one of the most electric players in college football last year. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting while throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and leading the Huskies to the national championship game.
Cousins, who has earned more than $294 million in career earnings, has passed the torch with class, but it remains to be seen whether his understudy is ready for the starring role. It’s uncertain what expectations the team now has for Penix this season, but it’s clear that the Falcons’ QB strategy is in overdrive and represents the league-wide dilemma presented to teams that have handed out guaranteed money and later the desire to dethrone that player.
“This is a very dramatic move to make this late in the season as we try to be a wild-card team,” Steinberg added. “It sends a clear message that they are turning to a young quarterback in times of crisis.”
The best of Sportico.com
Sign up for the Sportico newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
