HomeSportsBooms and Busts: Week 16 offers an old-fashioned path to fantasy title...

Booms and Busts: Week 16 offers an old-fashioned path to fantasy title games, with RBs leading the way

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor made sure he held onto the ball as he crossed the goal line this week. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Getty Images)

Will you advance to the finals of your fantasy football league? If so, chances are you did it the old-fashioned way: through the backfield.

As the early games wrapped up on Sunday, the top of the running back standings was littered with signature performances. Jonathan Taylor made up for last week’s unfortunate blunder by rushing for 218 yards and three touchdowns for 39.8 fantasy points against the Titans. Chuba Hubbard (30.5 fantasy points) was right behind Taylor on the scoresheet, with 152 rushing yards and two scores, including the walk-off touchdown to beat Arizona in overtime. Saquon Barkley (27 points), James Conner (24.6 points before getting injured), Jahmyr Gibbs (23.4 points) and Bijan Robinson (23.3 points), who star in the highlights all day.

The hit percentage at the top of the Week 16 running back board was absurdly high. When that early period ended, nine of the top 11 running backs in the game had exceeded their expected fantasy rating (we’ll throw in James Cook, who had his projection at the top before half of his late game). Only Chase Brown (12.4 points) and Joe Mixon (7.6 points) fell below expectations.

Mind you, there is always room for some whining. Derrick Henry (19.9 points) hasn’t scored a touchdown in a month. Conner suffered that knee injury, ruining what could have been a monstrous match. Gibbs executives love the 27 touches and 154 total yards, but maybe they’re a little greedy: They want more than one touchdown. The Lions were kind enough to send a touchdown to all four of their plausible skill position starters.

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Even some of the sleeper and quasi-sleeper plays came home. Gus Edwards scored twice on Thursday, Jerome Ford (21.6 points) made splash plays in Cincinnati, Tyjae Spears had a pair of touchdowns. Tyrone Tracy Jr. didn’t do much as a runner, but passing the ball and one touchdown grab made for effective deodorant. He also beat his projection.

We talk about this a lot in fantasy circles, the reduction in workload is quite projectable from week to week. The wide receivers and tight ends have to play the variance game. Most NFL teams have a bell cow or a lead runner from the committee, and defined backs for goal line and third down work. We pretty much know where the ball is going. Meanwhile, it’s never too surprising when a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver outperforms a team’s No. 1 receiver in any given week. These are the rules of variance and we are trying to make peace with them.

Gibbs, Robinson and Barkley were all given added responsibility in Week 16. Gibbs was working without David Montgomery (out indefinitely) and Barkley’s importance immediately skyrocketed when Jalen Hurts was concussed on the 11th snap of the game. The Falcons didn’t want to overload Michael Penix in his first start, allowing Robinson to get 22 carries for the third straight week. Gibbs easily set a new season high for touches, and the 29 Barkley carries were also a new high.

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It helps that many of these backs are on teams still fighting for play-off spots and positioning – we don’t have to guess at team motivation. Conversely, eliminating Arizona from playoff contention is now a concern for Conner’s managers – perhaps the Cardinals can rest Conner for a future game that doesn’t matter to them. Most of the other players we mentioned are free from these concerns.

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Versatility was the key word among the quarterback heroes in Week 16. Leading scorer Jayden Daniels was stellar with five touchdown passes en route to 36.42 points in an inspired comeback win over Philadelphia, but he also ran for 81 yards. Bryce Young scored 27.12 points, partly because of 68 scrambling yards and a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes’ second-best fantasy game of the season was fueled by 33 rushing yards and a touchdown on Saturday. It’s a shame Mahomes missed a few wide open receivers for likely touchdowns; it could have been a pinball score.

And then there are the Lions, who are set up to make fantasy managers happy. Jared Goff did what he wanted in the 34-17 win at Chicago (336 passing yards, three touchdowns), but there’s a leak at the bottom of the bucket – Caleb Williams threw for 334 yards and two scores against injury-ravaged Detroit defense . It was no surprise that Keenan Allen gave the Lions another cut (9-141-1); he went from a start-sit-seam call-up to the WR2 for Week 16 in a matter of hours.

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No one at tight end will break the Week 16 slate. Chig Okonkwo clicked with new starter Mason Rudolph and used a 9-81-1 line (and a 2-point conversion) as a path to a top 5 TE finish. Yet he only scored 14.6 points. I doubt many fantasy managers had confidence in Dalton Schultz (5-45-1) or Isaiah Likely (3-29-1, which moved him to TE8). Maybe Jake Ferguson or Tucker Kraft will flash in a later game. Travis Kelce is just a different man these days.

At least the defensive streaming model came through with two obvious moves. The Falcons scored two defensive touchdowns against Drew Lock and the overmatched Giants offense, racing to the top of the D/ST board. The Bengals didn’t get the touchdown luck, but they racked up five sacks and three turnovers against Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Cleveland’s sluggish offense. DTR’s mediocre play ruined Jerry Jeudy’s result; after a dynamic five-week run, Jeudy crashed with a 2-20-0 dud on three targets. Hopefully you had a reasonable pivot and were able to proactively bench Jeudy.

The Colts and Dolphins don’t have a great defense, but since they visit the Giants and Browns respectfully, perhaps they will be in the streamer conversation for Week 17.

Remark: I will continue to add the week 16 analysis as Sunday progresses.

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