Wildcard weekend is just around the corner, and even though there were a lot of bad teams this season, the good ones are now the only ones left playing.
This week’s Four Verts column discusses four storylines that stood out to us over the weekend.
Ravens are once again real Super Bowl contenders
Baltimore is back where they usually are: near the top of the AFC. The Ravens had a shaky season to start, but finished with a 12-5 record and won the AFC North in the final week of the season. Lamar Jackson had an MVP-caliber campaign and Derrick Henry had a dominant season in his first year with the team. Ultimately, this team simply had too much talent to have a truly bad year from start to finish and they were able to position themselves for another shot at a Super Bowl run thanks in no small part to defensive play. revival.
The Ravens were forced to make a move at defensive coordinator this season with the departure of Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, with former Ravens player and linebacker coach Zach Orr being replaced in the role. Much like MacDonald’s start with the Ravens, Orr got off to a rough start in the first few weeks of the season. The Ravens defense was a machine at giving up big plays, with even teams like the Browns and Raiders able to sustain attacks against them earlier in the season.
Over time, these issues began to resolve themselves through Orr’s problem-solving and the natural talent the Ravens had amassed on defense in recent years. Kyle Hamilton made a move to deep safety, Ar’Darius Washington had a breakout year, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins was borderline dominant in the second half of the season and they were able to put a lot more pressure on the quarterback. Since Week 11, the Ravens have arguably the best defense in football and have developed into one of the most complete teams in the league.
Of course, their postseason hopes live and die on the arms and legs of Lamar Jackson, who has yet to make a big run through the postseason and will be without one of his top weapons in Zay Flowers vs. the Steelers on Saturday. Of course, Jackson has the skill level to overcome that. Any quarterback who can throw for 4,000 yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions while chipping in another 900 yards on the ground is capable of taking over the entire world — let alone winning a Super Bowl. Henry could be the equalizer here that finally lets Jackson hoist the Lombardi, but the fact that Jackson not has had a Super Bowl run doesn’t mean he’s incapable of doing so. (The same goes for Josh Allen and Buffalo, who the Ravens could play later.)
Baltimore has become a well-oiled machine capable of going the distance for a Super Bowl thanks to their defense that is in championship form. For the sake of future discourse, let’s hope they can reach the second round of the playoffs.
Can the Packers beat the Eagles?
One of the benefits of a season with a plethora of teams at the bottom of the standings is the handful of really good teams that made the playoffs at the end of the season.
That’s certainly true in a playoff game that features a rematch of the season opener in Brazil, with the Packers heading out to take on the Eagles. In the new seven-team playoff format, it’s unusual for a team of any quality to actually be in the seventh seed, but the Packers are here because they’ve been playing in the incredibly loaded NFC North this season — and they have a chance to replicate what they did last year in terms of winning on the road as a No. 7 seed.
Green Bay enters this game with different expectations than a year ago. The Packers were just a bunch of upstart kids last season, sneaking into the playoffs on a hot streak while not really playing great football all season. This year was different, where an incredible 11-6 record means third place in the NFC North and the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. Still, the Packers have been one of the best teams in the league this season.
Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs were the perfect tandem for head coach Matt LaFleur to play the style of football he wanted to play. Jacobs came over from the Raiders and immediately made an impact on the Packers’ ground game, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. LaFleur’s offense has always been built around being able to run the ball, so getting Jacobs in free agency this year fundamentally changed the Packers and what they could accomplish.
With these two, and a growing group of receivers around them, the Packers could rank eighth in expected points added per game on offense (0.08), 12th in success rate on offense (43.3%), and sixth in points per drive (2.50). ) and third in explosive playing speed (13.2%). The ceiling for this offense is huge and they still have room to improve heading into the playoffs, as their recent loss to the Vikings showed.
Those guys will have to play well as the Eagles have arguably the best defense in the league all season and are in the top three or five in most defensive metrics. The Packers defense has a big task ahead of them bringing together Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown, so the offense will really have to step up their game and take on the Eagles to reach the next round, but they certainly have the facilities to to do that.
Vikings-Rams might be the coolest game of the weekend
The main thing revolving around this game will be the recovery of the greater Los Angeles area as five wildfires rip through the city, forcing thousands of people to flee their homes for safety. That wildfire could cause the NFL to do something about the upcoming Rams vs Vikings game, but nothing has been decided at this point. Whenever and wherever that game is played, there’s a great opportunity for people to distract themselves a little and tune in to what might be the coolest matchup of the weekend.
Once again, the Rams look like the wild card team no one wants to play with a matchup against the Vikings, and former Rams assistant Kevin O’Connell looming large. This is one of the coolest matchups of the weekend, especially since it features the Rams’ rushing attack against the Vikings’ fast, blitz-happy defense.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams are having an up-and-down year on offense, but everyone knows that when they have Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field at the same time, they can play anyone. The Vikings comfortably have a top-five defense no matter how you slice it. They rank third in expected points added per game (-0.08), fifth in conversion rate (39.4%) and fourth in third lowest conversion rate (35.6%). Stafford and McVay have the skill and experience to come up with a game plan that can outlast the Vikings’ aggressive defense. This matchup is all about big plays – and it’s probably the only way the Rams can win this game.
The Rams defense is at a huge disadvantage this game as they have tried to rebuild that side of the ball, which has them in the bottom third of most defensive metrics. It seems unlikely that they can contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with the personnel they have, so they will have to rush to score to keep themselves in the game.
Minnesota’s offense is a machine that the Rams probably don’t have any answers for, but if they can score relative to how good their talent is, they should at least be able to hang around.
Houston opening up as a house dog is appropriate for their season
The Houston Texans have made the playoffs again after finishing atop the dismal AFC South and will host a home game against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. The Texans didn’t have the cleanest year with head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback CJ Stroud, but they’re here and ready to fight for their lives in the playoffs – in the rare spot of being home underdogs for the first round. And honestly, they deserve to be underdogs to the Chargers based on their performance this season.
It’s hard to have a season where you win the division and feel like a serious underachiever at the same time. The first year of Stroud’s career coincided with the Texans having one of the best offenses in football. Stroud was a fast-paced superstar in Houston, leading them to a playoff berth just a year after they were one of the worst teams in the league. Offensively, they fell off a cliff this year as the offensive line struggled, injuries piled up at wide receiver, the running game was poor and Stroud was unable to take the brunt of all the failure around him.
According to TruMedia, the Texans were downright one of the worst offenses in the NFL this year. They ranked 24th in points per drive (1.82), 25th in expected points added per play (-0.07), 31st in success rate (36.7%) and dead last in rushing success rate (31.5%). Even just looking at them, it was clear that this was not the same well-oiled machine as it was a year ago. They will need some adjustments this offseason and, unfortunately for them, they will be running into one of the best defenses in the league to open their playoff run. While the Texans’ offense was bad, it’s not necessarily accurate to say this was a bad team overall.
The second year of Ryans’ reign over the Texans’ defense was a huge success, with Houston boasting one of the best defenses in the league – and it’s the main reason they made the playoffs outside of the teams within their division . They rank in the top five in virtually all advanced and basic metrics and rank first overall in defense success rate (38.7%). They should be able to do well against the Chargers’ inconsistent offense, but they may not be able to carry the full load needed to reach the divisional round of the playoffs.
According to BetMGM, the Texans are 2.5-point underdogs to the Chargers – hardly big favorites and have a real chance to win this game. However, the fact that they are underdogs at home is reflected in their shaky performances this year, including a 31-2 defeat to the Ravens at Christmas. They will have a chance to be productive on offense as long as Stroud is under center, but the current version of the Texans will be in trouble when wild card weekend begins on Saturday.
