Chances continue to increase that a tropical storm or tropical depression could form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by midweek, the National Hurricane Center said, as forecasters watch for an upcoming disturbance that could develop into an area of ​​low pressure . northeast of the central Bahamas and could potentially affect the east coast of Florida.
The first named storm to form in 2024 would be Alberto.
The Gulf of Mexico system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-northwestward, seeing its chances of developing over the next seven days increase to 30% over the next two days and 70% over the next seven days from Sunday 2 p.m. .
Storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the system could bring heavy rain and potential flooding to parts of southern Mexico and Central America.
Meanwhile, the system that could form near the Bahamas has been given a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas, after which slow development is possible while it system moves westward or west-northwestward. .
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual outlook for May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 37 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has fourteen named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has predicted four to seven major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher hurricanes, by 2024.
Experts from Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the US East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say the record warm water temperatures now covering much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into the peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. At the beginning of June, the tropical Atlantic Ocean was as hot as in mid-August, the height of the hurricane season.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
Sun Sentinel writers Bill Kearney and Robin Webb contributed to this report.
