PHOENIX – Jenny Valdovinos is the type of voter who represents the president’s dilemma Joe Biden we face in the crucial swing state of Arizona.
The 22-year-old Latina graphic designer knows she will definitely vote for a proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution in November if it ends up on the ballot, as supporters believe.
But when it comes to Biden, who she voted for in 2020, she is unconvinced.
“Biden hasn’t really done much or delivered as much as he said he would,” said Valdovinos, who lives in Phoenix. She added that he “hasn’t said or done enough” on a range of issues, including environmental protection, the economy and the ongoing war in Gaza.
Valdovinos underscores a broader problem in Arizona for Biden, who, like Democrats in many other states, has pushed hard to support reproductive rights.
That has largely been a winning strategy so far for Democratic and liberal candidates, who have won U.S. races in the nearly two years since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade by voicing support for abortion rights. And abortion rights advocates have won election campaigns in every state — including deep red areas like Kentucky and Kansas — where the issue has gone directly before voters in the post-Roe era.
It’s a dynamic that likely bodes well for Arizona’s proposed constitutional amendment, which would protect the right to abortion up to fetal viability, but has not yet extended to Biden in a state he narrowly carried four years ago.
A recent CBS News/YouGov poll showed former President Donald Trump leading Biden among likely voters 52% to 47% in Arizona. Meanwhile, 65% said they would vote in favor of a constitutional right to abortion.
There are several reasons why this split is happening, according to interviews with strategists, pollsters and reproductive rights activists.
Many note that while Arizona turned blue for the first time in 24 years in the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried it by just 10,500 votes, and registered Democrats still lag behind registered Republicans and independents in the state.
Furthermore, they point to polls showing Republican and independent voters prioritizing other issues, including the economy and the border.
And finally, they say six months before the election is too early in the cycle to accurately assess how the likely ballot measure could boost Biden.
Reproductive rights groups working with the Biden campaign in Arizona told NBC News they are aware of the challenges the president faces in the state and have a plan to win over more voters — especially when it comes to further highlighting his position on abortion rights.
“It’s not enough to just have an abortion measure on the ballot. The candidates themselves need to spend more time leaning in, talking about their support and what they would do,” said Reproductive Freedom for All President Mini Timmaraju, whose group (formerly known as NARAL Pro-Choice America) is working to to move the vote forward. measure and to turn out voters for Biden this fall. “I think it’s harder for President Biden because a general segment of the population isn’t paying much attention to this until we get closer to the fight.”
Jacques Petit, a spokesman for the Biden campaign in Arizona, added: “The Biden-Harris campaign and the Democratic-coordinated campaign are not taking any support for granted, which is why we have dozens of staff on the ground in Arizona working to reminding voters how There is a lot at stake for reproductive freedom.”
Warning signs for Biden
A key part of the challenge Biden faces is that even though reproductive rights have made headlines in the state for months after a near-total 1864 ban on abortion was reinstated, polls show voters care about many other issues besides abortion rights to give. – and that many believe Trump is better positioned to deal with this.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this month found that 64% of registered voters in Arizona said abortion should be legal “always” or “usually,” compared with 27% who said abortions should “always” or “usually” be illegal. The poll found more Arizona voters, 48% to 37%, said they trusted Biden over Trump on abortion issues.
But they said they trusted Trump more than Biden on the other two issues asked about in the state: the economy (61% to 34%) and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (53% to 33%).
A March Wall Street Journal poll found similar findings: 59% of registered voters in Arizona supported access to abortion in all or most cases, compared to 36% who said they believe abortion should be allowed in all or most cases. almost all situations should be illegal. It also found that voters thought Biden would handle the issue of abortion better than Trump, 45% to 33%.
But it was the only issue of eight where Biden had a clear advantage over Trump. Both polls also showed Trump leading Biden overall.
“Democrats know abortion is a ‘good issue,’ but here’s the problem: It goes against inflation and border security, which are without a doubt the two most important issues for independents in Arizona,” said Mike Noble, the CEO of the independent party. polling firm Noble Predictive Insights.
In Arizona, 29% of voters are registered as Democrats, compared to 35% who are registered as Republicans and 35% who are registered for a range of independent or “other” parties — meaning a Biden path to victory must once again depend of his ability. to earn the support of Republicans and independents.
The abortion rights amendment was thought to be the perfect vehicle to facilitate that crossover. While similar measures are about to appear on the ballot in other states in November, Arizona has been singled out by reproductive rights activists as the state where it could most likely help the top of the ticket.
But that success is not guaranteed this year.
“We tend to support Democratic candidates, but this is not a Democratic state,” said Samara Klar, a professor of public policy at the University of Arizona and an expert on the state’s political dynamics.
Organizers behind the Arizona ballot measure have indicated they are reluctant to align closely with the Democratic brand — and the Biden campaign — and say they must work to reach a broader bloc of voters.
“We are happy that everyone is talking about our voting initiative, regardless of their political preference. We think it’s important because it gets our message across,” said Chris Love, an Arizona spokesperson for Abortion Access, the group behind the amendment. “Our focus is on talking to the broadest cross-section of Arizona voters as possible, because we need all those people to win in November.”
“The Democratic Party speaks to its audience, but our audience is broader. And while we appreciate every mention, we try to keep it as open as possible and really talk to Arizonans about the freedom to make personal health care decisions, period,” Love added.
Bridging the gap
The Biden campaign and allied reproductive rights groups are working to bridge the gap between support for the campaign and support for the ballot measure.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have visited the state a total of three times since March, including an appearance by Harris in April just after the state Supreme Court revived the 1864 abortion ban.
Meanwhile, a group of reproductive rights groups and campaign surrogates, from inside and outside of Arizona, have swept the state in recent weeks, speaking to voters about the stakes of the 2024 election, specifically through the lens of abortion rights.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer visited in April for an event specifically on abortion rights, while many Democratic state lawmakers have held events in their districts to highlight Biden’s pledge to protect abortion rights and how Trump three of the appointed Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn abortion rights. Roo.
“Defining Trump and making sure people hear from Trump in his own words” are moves that will “immediately stand out” to voters, Timmaraju said. “It’s becoming harder to explain what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris actually did [on the issue] – and they’ve done quite a bit – but it’s not as easy to explain as, ‘Here’s a video of Trump bragging about overturning Roe.’”
But, she added, “we need to be more aggressive in sharing” the contrast.
Her group — which has endorsed the Biden campaign and is a member of the coalition pushing for the ballot measure — has already begun pushing for both causes and will ramp up those efforts over the summer.
Other campaign surrogates said the key to a Biden victory is listening to voters’ concerns about the many other issues they worry about beyond abortion.
“It’s important that we don’t push aside voters’ other concerns about the border and the economy because Democrats have good solutions,” said Democratic state Sen. Eva Burch, who made headlines in March after publicly discussing the Chamber had spoken. in depth how she had had an abortion.
“We need to make sure we make this as important as the abortion issue,” she added.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
