Summary
Talk about an undecided market. In four of the past five days, the S&P 500’s (SPX) closing margin was 13.6 points. That’s two-tenths of 1% based on the price of the index. For the Nasdaq, the range is 14.76 points or eight hundredths of 1% in four out of five days. The Nasdaq 100’s (QQQ) range was 0.83 points, or two-tenths of 1%. The Nasdaq and QQQ have tested their 21-day exponent a few times and remain dangerously close to breaking that average, while the SPX has come close to the average several times intraday. The third quarter EPS season starts this week, with PEP, INFY, DAL, JPM, WFC, PGR, BLK and BK all reporting. The big financial figures will come at the end of the week and next week. The next three weeks will be very heavy with earnings reports. Just before and just after earnings reports, companies are in a blackout period. During that time, a company cannot buy back its shares. So in April/early May, July/early August, October/early November and January/early February there is a lack of demand, which can cause weakness in the overall market. In the first quarter of 2024, share repurchases on the S&P 500 were $237 billion, and for the twelve months ended March 2024, repurchases were $817 billion
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