Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has a 5-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan in their race for U.S. Senate, a new poll shows. File photo by Danielle E. Gaines.
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks has a 5-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan in their campaign for U.S. Senate, a poll released Wednesday found.
Gonzales’ recently released poll shows Alsobrooks ahead of Hogan 46%-41%, with 11% undecided.
“I wouldn’t call out the dogs. The hunt is still going on and it’s definitely still a race,” said pollster Patrick Gonzales.
Gonzales surveyed 820 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in November. The poll, conducted Aug. 24-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
On Tuesday, Gonzales released a poll with updated numbers on the performance of Gov. Wes Moore (D), whose job approval improved, and a look at the state of the presidential campaign in deep-blue Maryland, where Vice President Kamala Harris (D) holds a wide lead over GOP candidate Donald Trump.
The Gonzales poll on the Senate race contrasts with a recent survey suggesting a close race: Last week, a poll conducted for AARP showed Alsobrooks and Hogan in a neck-and-neck race. That poll sampled 600 voters in mid-August and had a margin of error of 4 points.
Alsobrooks, the two-term Democratic governor of Prince George’s County, and Hogan, only the second two-term Republican governor in Maryland history, are vying to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The three-term senior senator announced his retirement more than a year ago.
If elected, Hogan would become the first Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland since Charles McC. Mathias Jr., who retired in 1987.
Alsobrooks and Hogan enter the final 60 days of the campaign with markedly different levels of name recognition among respondents.
For Hogan, 98% of voters said they recognized his name, including 50% who said they had a positive impression of the former governor. Another 19% had a negative opinion, and 29% said they were neutral.
Alsobrooks’ name was recognized by about 67% of voters surveyed, including four in 10 who said they had a positive opinion of the county executive. Another 7% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Alsobrooks.
More than three in ten respondents did not recognize her by name.
“It means that ordinary people have a life that is not about politics,” Gonzales said.
The high number of people who have no impression of Alsobrooks could be an opportunity for her, but it also leaves the door open for her to be defined by her opponent if she doesn’t do so herself, Gonzales said. He said Alsobrooks has a “blank slate” when it comes to how voters see her, allowing Alsobrooks to define herself for voters or be defined by her opponent, who “can paint on it whatever they want.”
According to Gonzales, many voters are not paying much attention to the race yet.
Democratic voters in Maryland outnumber their Republican counterparts by a margin of about 2 to 1. The poll shows that Hogan has the support of a significant number of Democrats — 21% said they would vote for Hogan, compared to 72% for Alsobrooks — but Gonzales said Hogan faces a mathematical challenge — namely, his ability to get 30% support from Democratic voters.
“Larry has to get 30% of Democrats no matter what,” Gonzales said. “He has to get 90% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and he has to get 30% of Democrats. Mathematically, that’s the only way to win.
“So, is that possible? Of course, it is. But if you look at the numbers (the poll), it’s not possible because there are only 6% of Democrats undecided,” he said.
