WASHINGTON (AP) — The unemployment rate is healthy and the stock market is up, but Democrats are more pessimistic about the U.S. economy after Donald Trump’s election victory, according to a new poll.
Republicans, meanwhile, are still gloomy about the current state of the economy, but hope that growth will be stronger next year when Trump returns to the White House as president.
The latest survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that some Americans are judging the economy more based on who has political power than on what underlying trends suggest. This has been an ongoing challenge for President Joe Biden that Trump appears to inherit — and it raises the possibility that Trump, too, could struggle to translate his economic policies into political victories.
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About seven in 10 American adults rate the country’s economic condition as very or somewhat poor, up slightly from about six in 10 in October. Self-proclaimed Democrats are primarily the driving force behind the recent negativity. About six in ten Democrats describe the American economy as ‘good’ in October. With Republicans poised to control the executive and legislative branches, only about half of Democrats now say so.
“If Trump gets his tariffs in place next year, prices will rise and things will become more expensive,” said Karen Claussen, 77, who lives in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio, and voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the November election. “I don’t see any hope right now. No, I’m very worried.”
Long-standing pessimism about the economy shows a disconnect between the traditional measures used to judge performance and how people feel.
The unemployment rate is at a healthy 4.2%, while hiring remains solid. Inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak, but progress has stalled in recent months. The stock market had already risen under Biden and has continued to rise since the election, anticipating Trump’s promised tax cuts and efforts to curb regulation.
Perhaps because the poll was conducted while Biden was still in office, only 16% of Republicans say the country’s economy is currently good. But they see positive changes ahead: About seven in 10 Republicans say 2025 will be a better year than 2024 for the U.S. economy.
In the November elections AP VoteCast indicated that voters favored Trump largely due to dissatisfaction with inflation, a global phenomenon born of the pandemic that has driven up prices for groceries, gasoline, cars and housing.
The new AP-NORC survey shows that about a third of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about their ability to afford groceries in the coming months. About 3 in 10 people are very concerned about being able to afford holiday gifts, gas or electricity.
“Right now it’s Christmas and we’re struggling to make sure our son has Christmas this year,” said Jeremy Spratley, 39, of Westland, Michigan.
Spratley has a disability, and he said his family is receiving less food assistance at a time when affordability has become an issue. He voted for Trump even though he thinks the former president cares more about the rich than people like him.
“I know he doesn’t look out for poor people like me, but even if it trickles down, that will be a benefit,” Spratley said.
People in households earning $50,000 or less are also more likely to worry about covering their basic needs and end-of-year expenses, compared to those with higher incomes. About half of those with a household income of less than $50,000 worry about being able to afford groceries, and about 4 in 10 say the same about buying gas, electricity or holiday gifts.
Among Republicans who already have a negative view of the economy, about seven in 10 expect things to be better next year. Only about four in 10 independents who see the economy as weak say it will improve. And about 1 in 10 Democrats who currently think the economy is weak say it will improve next year.
It is common for some Americans to change their views on the economy after a new president comes to power.
For example, Democrats’ view of the economy improved dramatically between December 2020 and February 2021, after Biden came to power. Only 15% of Democrats rated the economy as “good” at the end of 2020, but that rose to 41% by February. Over the same period, Republicans’ views fell from about 7 in 10 saying the economy was in good shape to 35%. The top view remained the same, and the independents did not significantly change their positions.
Barring a series of bold and brash statements, it is unclear what policies Trump would prioritize in hopes of boosting growth.
He has threatened universal tariffs against partners like Canada and Mexico, as well as geopolitical rivals like China, unless those countries adopt policies on trade, immigration and other issues to his liking. He would also like to extend and expand parts of his 2017 tax cuts, which are set to expire but could lead to higher debt levels, which could hamper growth.
But for voters like Benjamin Lebert (41), what matters is that Trump marks a change from the current administration. The Roanoke, Virginia, resident voted for Trump this year after not doing so in 2016 or 2020.
“Now that Trump is in power, maybe new things will happen to America that didn’t happen under Joe Biden,” Lebert said.
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The poll of 1,251 adults was conducted December 5-9, 2024, using a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults totals plus or minus 3.7 percentage points
