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Analysis: Why October hero Walker Buehler was always going to leave the Dodgers

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Analysis: Why October hero Walker Buehler was always going to leave the Dodgers

Walker Buehler throws a ball on the mound during his start in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets in New York. Buehler signed a one-year contract with the Red Sox on Monday. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

The moment was already destined for Dodgers lore.

Walker Buehler, arms outstretched, walks down the Yankee Stadium mound, having just secured a World Series title with his signature knuckleball curveball.

Now the scene will also be a farewell image to Buehler’s distinguished tenure at the club.

On Monday, Buehler agreed to a one-year, $21.05 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, as Yahoo Sports first reported, officially ending a seven-year run with the Dodgers that included tantalizing highlights (two All-Star selections, two World Series titles and the fourth-best ERA in the majors from 2018-2021), injury-plagued lows (including two Tommy John surgeries that have fueled his emergence as the next big thing Dodgers derailed ace) and a fitting final act, with Buehler’s iconic save in Game 5 of the World Series proving to be his last game in a Dodgers uniform.

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It’s a departure that was expected for most of this year, as Buehler struggled in the regular season as he returned from his second Tommy John procedure.

However, despite his 1-6 record and career-worst 5.38 ERA, Buehler snuck into the Dodgers’ postseason rotation amid a series of other pitching injuries and performed in ways he couldn’t even fully expected. Four shutout innings in a Game 3 victory in the National League Championship Series. Five flawless frames in Game 3 of the Fall Classic. And then, on just one day of rest, a 16-pitch relief appearance to cap off a championship.

For the first time in three years, flashes of Buehler’s once dominant form returned.

And for a moment, a path seemed to open up for the impending free agent to re-sign in Los Angeles.

“What Walker did, what he did for us, what he did for us this year, his teammates, that’s not lost on us,” general manager Brandon Gomes said last month.

Unfortunately, the chances of such a reunion were essentially ruined in the first week of the offseason, when the Dodgers decided not to extend a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer to the 30-year-old right-hander.

Read more: MLB free agency: World Series hero Walker Buehler will not return to Dodgers. Will Teoscar Hernández?

The move allowed Buehler to hit the open market without the burden of a draft-pick penalty. And as the Dodgers looked elsewhere to bolster their rotation — they signed two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a $182 million contract and remained involved in the sweepstakes for 23-year-old Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki — it became clear It was unlikely that Buehler would fit into their 2025 plans.

“I don’t think there’s a better way to go out if I do,” Buehler said on the eve of the Fall Classic, when asked about 2024 potentially being his last season with the Dodgers, “than after hopefully a successful World Series.”

The Dodgers’ decision not to offer Buehler a QO — for essentially the same amount he will reportedly receive from the Red Sox — was met with some surprise within the industry.

In a vacuum, Buehler’s regular-season performance might not have warranted such a payday. The dismal history of two-time Tommy John pitchers also added risk.

Nevertheless, Buehler was perhaps the best homegrown success story in this era of Dodgers baseball, going from a first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2017 to an integral member of the club’s 2020 and 2024 championship teams.

This year’s heroics in October had reignited the fanbase’s love for the ever-confident veteran pitcher, evidenced by the raucous reception he received at the team’s championship parade last month as he donned the vintage jersey that Orel Hersisher – a longtime mentor of his within the organization – had worn during the 1988 World Series.

Walker Buehler, wearing an Orel Hershiser jersey, speaks during the championship celebration at Dodger Stadium last month. (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

At several points leading up to this offseason, Buehler had expressed a desire to remain in Los Angeles, saying before the World Series, “I’m very happy to be a Los Angeles Dodger, and I would love to be here as want to stay as long as they will have me.”

But even then, Buehler hinted that the team’s QO decision would likely determine his chances of returning.

“The first step in all of those things is the team,” he said of his upcoming free agency. “And that will happen one way or another very soon.”

While the Dodgers remained open to bringing back Buehler even after declining to offer him a QO, market dynamics always seemed to result in a split instead. Because Beuhler did not receive a QO, other teams were not forced to give up a draft pick to sign him. And as a talented arm with an excellent postseason track record, he became an intriguing option for fellow prospects looking to round out their rotations.

Where he may have been an expendable asset for a Dodgers team that has already comfortably exceeded the top luxury tax threshold and will have Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin back from injuries next season, Buehler may now be a missing piece for the club. playoff-hungry Red Sox, who finished five games outside the American League wild-card picture last season.

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“Over the last few months,” Buehler said during his postseason resurgence, “I’ve built my confidence up a little bit to the point where there’s going to be some teams that want me on their team. I feel like a starting pitcher in the Major League, whether here or elsewhere.”

The latter officially became a reality on Monday.

Walker Buehler is no longer a Dodger. His championship curveball will be the lasting memory of his tenure with the team.

“I’ve played here my whole career, I love playing here,” Buehler said during the World Series. “I wouldn’t have it any other way.”

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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.

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