As the Senators take on the Vegas Golden Knights on a rare weekday at 6:00 PM ET, the organization can put itself in a good position for the matchup. dreaded month of November.
November has not been kind to Senators in recent years. Since the team’s appearance in the Eastern Conference finals in November, the Senators have posted a combined record of 27-46-3 for a points percentage of .375. This piece of futility includes a 9-24-2 showing for the past three seasons.
However, with a win tonight, the Senators can ensure they end the month with an October record above .500. It would be quite an achievement for this group, given the contextual circumstances the team has faced.
Losing their No. 1 goaltender, Linus Ullmark, with an undisclosed muscle strain was unexpected. Artem Zub, who suffered a concussion in the third game of the season, thanks to a goal from Tanner Jeannot, was another big blow to the line-up.
Adjusting to new head coach Travis Green and creating a smooth transition were paramount. Implementing and executing his systems effectively was always going to take time, but a winning record would provide a nice cushion of points and increase the margin for error later.
Much has been said about some of the Senators’ poor five-on-five underlying shooting and goal data. NaturalStatTrick ranks in the bottom third of the league in percentage of shots allowed (48.74 CF%, 21st) and goals allowed (36.36 GF%, 28th), but it’s worth remembering that this is a is a small sample size that faces a number of strong players. quality of competition.
Here’s how the October Senators’ opponents fared in terms of expected goals percentage:
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Florida: 53.69, 8th
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Montreal: 36.05, 32nd
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Los Angeles: 57.49, 2nd
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New Jersey: 50.03, 15th
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Tampa Bay: 51.42, 11th
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Utah: 50.63, T-14e
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Vegas: 43.20, 30th
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Colorado: 55.36, 7th
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St. Louis: 48.33, 22nd
It’s a tough run of games, but there are some encouraging signs for this team under the hood.
For starters, the Senators are doing an excellent job defensively. HockeyViz’s data shows how the Senators have limited opposition shots to the five-on-five perimeter. Their penalty kill reflects the even defense by limiting quality chances in the crease and slot.
This is important because it is on the defensive side of the puck where the Senators have underperformed in recent seasons. It’s their attacking struggles at five-on-five that are a concern, but there should be enough talent in the lineup to mitigate this problem.
Michael Amadio and David Perron failed to score points. Of the Senators defensive combinations that have combined to log more than ten minutes of five-on-five ice time, only the Thomas Chabot/Nick Jensen combination has been on the ice for a Senators goal.
Ultimately, uniform strength production should increase. If so and the Senators continue to play and build on their defensive progress, that should bode well as the schedule continues to unfold.
