The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball.
Through 48 games, the riveting Fightin’s are a robust 34-14. They sit atop the National League East five games behind the Atlanta Braves and enter action on Tuesday, the club’s largest lead since the final game of the 2011 season. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are all hitting like All-Stars. Philadelphia’s starting staff, bolstered by the emergence of left-handed Ranger Suarez, boasts the lowest rotation ERA in the MLB. The vibrant baseball circus that opened during the 2022 NLDS continues to roll.
But how much better are these Phillies? Is this team actually an improved version of itself or simply the beneficiary of an extremely comfortable early season schedule?
The answer is yes.
How easy has Philadelphia’s path been? So far in 2024, the Phillies have played just three games against a team with a record currently above .500, and all three of those were Opening Weekend against the Braves. Since then, Philadelphia has played 19 of its games against five of MLB’s six worst teams: the Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Angels and White Sox. Other than Atlanta, the Phillies have yet to face a division leader. And aside from the topsy-turvy Padres, whom they defeated in San Diego in late April, Philly hasn’t even faced a second-ranked team.
The combined winning percentage of Philadelphia’s opponents this year is currently .465, by far the lowest in the MLB. The next easiest schedule is Tampa Bay’s at .477. No other team has an SOS below .480.
That is an ultra-gentle schedule from Charmin. Cozier than Egyptian cotton. Far from a glove. Sailing as smoothly as possible. But several things can be true at once: the schedule was bad, And the Phillies were better.
The starting rotation, with a league-best ERA of 2.63, has led the way. By comparison, the ERA for Philadelphia’s staff was an ugly 4.87 at this time last year. The difference isn’t in the personnel — most of these pitchers were in red pinstripes a year ago — but in the development from within.
Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola were their typical valuable workhorses within the group. Behind them, lanky switch artist Christopher Sánchez has emerged as a reliable mid-rotation arm. Spencer Turnbull came on phenomenally in place of Taijuan Walker, who has been the relatively weak link since his return in early May. But by far the biggest development so far has been the emergence of Suarez.
In ’22 and ’23, the cool-headed southpaw performed as a capable No. 3 in the regular season before taking his game to the next level in October. This year, after being hampered by several injuries and obstacles during recent spring training, the 28-year-old Venezuelan was healthy and available for the entire camp. And that has made a world of difference: He currently has the second-lowest ERA in baseball and should be considered a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Offensively, the Phillies have been propelled in large part by a breakout campaign from Alec Bohm. The shaggy-limbed gentleman has been a contact-oriented hitter since his debut in 2020. But this year, the 27-year-old third baseman has added more power to his game without sacrificing his bat-to-ball skills; Bohm catches the ball more often and hits it harder on average. Also, his once subpar defense at the hot corner has improved significantly. Simply put, Bohm was the MLB’s best third baseman to begin with.
His hot start has helped the lineup weather Trea Turner’s lengthy stint on the injured list. Timely bursts from utility players Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens have also filled the gaps. Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto have been more good than great, and Nick Castellanos’ continued offensive ineptitude is a real concern, but Harper and Stott have provided enough pop to keep the Phillies moving.
At its core, this Phillies club is remarkably unchanged from the previous two seasons. There is a little more depth to the selection, but nothing groundbreaking.
Before a recent game against the Mets at Citi Field, skipper Rob Thomson was asked if 2024 is starting to feel like something special. The veteran baseball player said something between a chuckle and a grumble, dismissing the idea and emphasizing the continuity of his ball club while gesturing vaguely toward the endless season and indicating that postseason success is the team’s true goal is.
Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs echoed the sentiment after that day’s game.
“It is palpable [special]You know, since ’22,’ he said. “You’ve got a lot of the same guys here that were on the ’22 team there, on the ’23 team. Everyone feels very comfortable with each other.”
He is right. This team consists of mostly the same guys, but thanks in part to a simpler schedule, they simply play better.
And all the Phillies can do is keep beating the teams in front of them. Their schedule will eventually become more difficult. An impressive stretch against the Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers looms just after the All-Star break. Their five-game lead over the Braves in the division will be useful as the days of summer arrive.
Atlanta likely has more pitching depth, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, but if the Phillies’ arms stay healthy, they have a chance to take the East. Their odds of winning the division have increased from 6.9% on opening day to 41.8% on Tuesday’s play, according to FanGraphs.
Even if Philadelphia doesn’t ultimately win the NL East, the longer they keep things close, the more aggressive the Braves will have to be with their roster decisions. That can only benefit Philly in October.
In the Braves’ ideal scenario, they would have enough of a lead to rest some or all of their starting pitchers sometime this summer. Reynaldo López and Chris Sale have been excellent, but neither has thrown more than 140 innings since 2019. Charlie Morton has been reliable, but he carries all the injury risks that come with being 40 years old. Managing the workload would be an easier task for Atlanta with the division lead.
That would also give Atlanta a chance to test its two top players, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, in low-pressure starting roles. But the smaller the gap, the less Atlanta can plan ahead for the playoffs. It’s less of an issue with their position players, as all the Braves play almost every day, but it’s something to monitor with Atlanta’s starting rotation.
It all presents a very different dynamic than the fourteen games the Braves enjoyed last season. Because although Harper and Co. reached the playoffs the past two seasons, they did so despite disappointing springs. The club’s 48-game record in 2023 was 22–26. In 2022, Philadelphia was 21-27. Both years had rising summers that allowed for baseball in October.
This time, the Phillies have made things much easier on themselves. Instead of a hole to climb out of, they built a perch and gave themselves a leash and space to play. They were offered a peaceful path and took full advantage of it.
