2024 Season: Eliminated on September 30, 3rd in NL West
Let’s take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 2024 season, the questions the team must answer this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB Offseason Previews: What’s Next for the White Sox, Cubs, Giants and More?
Things that went well
The D-backs were an offensive juggernaut, scoring 44 more points than any other team. Their 886 points were the most points scored by Arizona since it scored 908 points in 1999.
Ketel Marte was the driving force in the lineup and led the team in home runs and OPS. He had plenty of help, including Joc Pederson, who produced 23 home runs and a .908 OPS despite playing almost exclusively against right-handers. Eugenio Suárez also had a remarkable season where he had 32 RBI at the end of June before catching fire, driving in 69 runs over the last three months. There was a similar story with Corbin Carroll, who posted a .635 OPS in the first half before recording 17 home runs and a .919 OPS after the All-Star break.
Things that went wrong
As good as the offense was, Arizona missed the postseason due to a pitching staff that finished 27th in ERA, including posting the worst ERA in baseball (5.34) in September. The blame for this was shared equally between the rotation and the relief corps.
Disappointment was rampant within the starting staff, as no one who started a single game finished the year with an ERA under 3.65. Zac Gallen (3.65 ERA) was acceptable, as was Merrill Kelly (4.03 ERA), albeit over just 13 starts. Brandon Pfaadt (4.71 ERA) and Ryne Nelson (4.24 ERA) were disappointing, while the March signing of Jordan Montgomery (6.23 ERA) was disastrous. Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez combined for just 23 starts.
Paul Sewald was set to anchor the bullpen, but he missed April due to an oblique injury and struggled in July to the point of permanently losing the closer’s role. The five relievers who led Arizona in appearances produced solid results, but Justin Martinez was the only one who had a case that could be labeled as dominant.
Off-season plans
The D-backs are in a tough spot as their elite offense is losing significant pieces while their undersized pitching staff returns most of its members. In an ideal world, most position players are retained and the pitching staff improves through rebound seasons.
The infield has two glaring holes that need to be filled this offseason. First baseman Christian Walker has been one of the team’s most consistent performers in recent years, but he is headed to free agency and the club has made a difficult decision on a $15 million option on third baseman Suárez. Elsewhere, things are more settled, with Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, Marte at second base and Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop. Adrian Del Castillo did well when he filled in for Moreno this year (.893 OPS) and was able to be part of a catching tandem.
Arizona stands at the corner of the outfield with Carroll (left) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (right). Jake McCarthy later took over as midfielder and could fill that role in 2025. There is a mutual option on the contract of Randal Grichuk, who will likely hit free agency. Pederson is in the same boat, although there could be interest from both sides in bringing him back. Finally, Pavin Smith will return as reserve 1B/OF. He excelled in 2024 (.895 OPS) and could step into a bigger role.
There is a surprising amount of stability in the rotation, assuming a few arms can recover from bad years. Gallen will be the ace, and Montgomery will almost certainly exercise his 2025 player option. The club will exercise a $7 million option on Kelly’s contract, and Rodriguez will remain under contract beyond 2025. Pfaadt still has plenty of potential as a fifth starter, and Nelson is willing to step into the rotation if necessary after he does so has made 25 starts in the past year.
General manager Mike Hazen will have to make some important decisions about the bullpen as Sewald heads to free agency and the group overall wasn’t good enough in 2024. The most important question concerns Martinez. If Hazen thinks he’s ready to be a full-time closer for a contending team, the team can save some money by adding depth to the relief corps. If not, the wallet should be opened to an experienced closer.
Prospects on the horizon
The progress of several key members of Arizona’s 2024 candidate pool was slowed by injuries, and it is now considered an average group at best.
Jordan Lawlar, the sixth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, is still considered one of the best players in baseball despite missing most of 2024 due to a series of injuries. The 22-year-old can do it all offensively, including reaching base often, hitting for power and stealing bases. He played in 14 games with the D-backs in 2023 and will challenge Perdomo for the starting shortstop job in spring training.
Druw Jones, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, is the other jewel of Arizona’s farm system. The 20-year-old has great long-term potential and will eventually become the team’s center fielder, but he has yet to reach Double-A and will most likely make his D-backs debut in 2026.
Yilber Diaz and Yu-Min Lin are not considered top prospects but should start for the D-backs in 2025. Diaz has already thrown 28 1/3 Major League innings and will be one of the top candidates to fill in if Veterans suffer injuries next season. Lin is a little further behind after only pitching briefly in Triple-A, but he could be an option next summer.
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Goals for 2025
Winning the NL West feels overly optimistic for Arizona, which hasn’t accomplished that feat since 2011. After all, the Dodgers have had a stranglehold on this division for years, and the Padres are also formidable contenders.
But qualifying for the postseason next year is a reasonable goal, with hopes the Diamondbacks can repeat their Cinderella story from 2023, when everything clicked in October and they advanced to the World Series.
Fantasy focus
While Marte was the team’s best player this year, it is Carroll who will be the first Arizona player selected in the 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. The 24-year-old will be a first-round draft pick in some leagues, thanks to his ability to rack up significant totals in home runs, stolen bases, and runs scored. Marte is selected in the bracket of rounds 4-6.
Gallen will be the first D-backs pitcher off the board, likely in the range of rounds 5-7. Martinez, Kelly and Suárez are all great mid-round options. Walker will be picked in the range of rounds 8-10, whether he returns to Arizona or signs elsewhere.
