PHOENIX – Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who is backing Kamala Harris for president, is annoyed by the discrepancy between the presidential race in Arizona and what’s happening during the election.
Polls show Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, the quintessential Donald Trump acolyte, losing a significant share of the former president’s voters to her Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego.
“There’s something teflon about Donald Trump that just doesn’t make sense to me. Kari Lake literally says the same things as Donald Trump and people roll their eyes. And when Donald Trump says that, they clap,” Giles said in an interview. “I can’t do that – there’s no rational explanation for that.”
That disconnect reflects a unique dynamic in Arizona’s battleground: An ensuing race for the Senate and a pair of ultra-competitive House elections are taking place in their own mini-universe, largely separate from the big presidential contest — and from each other. A ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution has not provided the clear boost for Democratic candidates they had hoped for.
Instead, a mix of ticket splitting, shifting party coalitions and candidate contrasts is driving the races in this historically Republican stronghold-turned-top-swing state.
In the House of Representatives, two Republican members of Congress are trying to fend off a pair of Democratic former state lawmakers. David Schweikert, a seven-term Republican representative, is trying to hold on against Amish Shah, a doctor, in the blue-trending suburbs of Phoenix after winning by less than 1 point in 2022. And in the Tucson area, freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is facing a rematch against Kirsten Engel after previously winning by less than 2 points.
Arizona’s two highly competitive House races
Both House races are rated as “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report With Amy Walter. One thing operatives from both parties agree on is that it will come down to the quartet of candidates, not the strength of the presidential or Senate candidates.
“All four have different personalities,” said a Democratic aide covering House races, who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity. “Whoever ends up winning these races – that will be clear because voters are choosing someone, not just following the top of the ticket.”
Democrats say Gallego’s strength doesn’t automatically elevate their candidates, while Republicans say Lake hasn’t been an albatross for them. Democrats argue that the abortion ballot initiative will help increase turnout, but acknowledge they still have work to do to convince voters that Republican candidates pose a threat to legal abortion.
“Since 2018, Arizonans have been among the most sophisticated ticket splitters in the country,” said a GOP strategist covering House races, noting that Schweikert and Ciscomani won in 2022 despite Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters lost both districts. “The races are on their own track, and that also applies to the ballot initiatives. You could see voters voting for Trump-Gallego-Schweikert.”
“I’d be curious to know what their thoughts are,” the officer joked. “But the polls seem to indicate that they do exist.”
Trump’s team has also noticed Lake’s underperformance.
“The most important thing to point out is that President Trump is not walking in other people’s shoes and he is his own candidate,” said a Trump campaign official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about Lake’s struggle. “That’s a different breed.”
An ongoing national realignment adds a new layer of mystery in Arizona. Democrats are increasingly attracting white college graduates in the suburbs, a key voting group, raising some concerns within the Republican party.
“The political climate is worse for Republicans than it was in 2020 in a few suburban districts, namely Omaha, and across Arizona. This is a concern of three esteemed incumbents: [Nebraska Rep. Don] Bacon, Ciscomani, Schweikert,” Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, wrote in a memo to allies obtained by NBC News.
But Democrats also face the threat of defections among a portion of Latino voters, especially men without college degrees, who could help Republicans gain ground elsewhere.
Gallego, as a male Latino veteran, said his background gives him a built-in advantage with voters Harris may struggle with. He said moderate Republicans who supported the late Sen. John McCain are also “part of the key” to a statewide victory.
Some voters with fluid partisan preferences will not split their votes.
“I’ve been a Republican all my life. I’m actually voting directly for the Democratic party for the first time in my life,” Roberta Voss, a former Republican Party state lawmaker, said Thursday during a Phoenix-area roundtable with Gallego. “One criterion for me: did Trump support you? You don’t have my vote. It’s that simple.”
The individual dynamics indicate that the issues at hand will not decide the races: Republicans are largely focused on issues of crime, border security, and inflation, while Democrats capitalize on their advantages in health care, abortion, and Social Security protections.
In another regard, a new survey commissioned by the nonpartisan Inside Elections found that far-right Republican Rep. Eli Crane underperformed Trump in his red district by 10 points, suggesting that at least some rural or Native American voters are open for splitting their tickets. Crane remains the favorite over Democratic rival Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation.
One theory about the Trump-Crane split: The freshman lawmaker may be paying a price for joining seven other Republican lawmakers to topple former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during last year’s midsession.
“I think Eli Crane took out some Republicans who were angry because he took out McCarthy,” said Arizona Republican consultant Marson. “So now you have a Navajo against him who will crush Native American voters. And that could also pose a problem for Eli Crane.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
