Early elections after a deadly helicopter crash. A candidate promising a different approach, both at home and abroad. And suddenly there is an element of tension and unpredictability in Iran as voters go to the polls to elect a new president.
Elections in the Islamic Republic are tightly controlled; candidates are all vetted by an influential committee of clerics before they can run. And voter apathy has been widespread lately.
But this time there is a wild card: reformist former heart surgeon and health minister Massoud Pezeshkian, who has declared the actions of Iran’s morality police, which imposes strict dress codes on women, “immoral.”
The rules on wearing the hijab are now regularly flouted by women and Mr Pezeshkian, 69, has said: “If wearing certain clothes is a sin, then the behaviour towards women and girls is 100 times a greater sin. Nowhere in the religion is there permission to confront someone because of their clothes.”
He has also vowed to try to improve ties with the West and revive nuclear talks, hoping to end sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.
Mr. Pezeshkian is openly supported by two former reformist presidents, Hassan Rohani And Mohammed Khatamiand the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Javad Zarif.
His campaign rallies drew increasing crowds in the run-up to election day.
And on Thursday, two candidates dropped out, in an apparent attempt by the clergy to avoid splitting the conservative vote.
According to the most recent opinion polls, Pezeshkian is ahead of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who currently serves as parliament speaker, and Saeed Jalili, a former radical nuclear negotiator.
Conservatives oppose cooperation with the West and argue that Iran can succeed despite sanctions.
There is one other candidate in the running to replace Ebrahim Raisi, the hardliner who was killed last month in a helicopter crash on a foggy mountainside that also killed seven others.
Turnout figures are seen as a key test of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.
They reached a low point in the parliamentary elections in March and the last presidential elections in 2021.
Superior leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who is the highest authority in Iran – has called for “maximum” turnout. And a solid core of regime supporters will surely vote.
But many young and middle-class Iranians are deeply disillusioned and distrustful of any political process orchestrated by the Islamic Republic, and now want to end 45 years of clerical rule.
“There are many billboards in the streets asking people to ‘vote for a better future,’ but we just don’t buy it anymore,” a 20-year-old student in Tehran told me via text message. “No one wants to vote anymore.”
Since the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody in 2022 – and the nationwide uprising that resulted – the rift between Iran’s leaders and the Iranian people has widened dramatically.
The brutal crackdown on protesters has fueled hatred against the regime, especially among Generation Z.
The hopes that were placed on reformists in the past have been repeatedly dashed. And in recent years, those who want to reform the system have been increasingly marginalized.
Former President Hassan Rouhani was not even allowed to run in the recent elections for an influential body, the Assembly of Experts, whose job is to appoint the Supreme Leader.
Many Iranians have lost hope that meaningful change will come through the ballot box.
“I’m not going to vote this year,” a 70-year-old woman in Tehran, who has previously voted for reformist candidates, told the BBC. “I know nothing will change. The economy is in such a bad state and a generation of young people now just want to get out of Iran.”
Azad (not her real name), a women’s rights activist who was jailed during the protests, described it as an “electoral circus”.
“If the puppeteer is a single person named Khamenei, it doesn’t matter what name comes out of the ballot box,” she told me via a social media app. “At the height of the unrest, people repeatedly shouted this slogan in the streets: ‘Reformist, conservative, the game is over’.”
Some believe that the church establishment only allowed Pezeshkian to run as part of an effort to increase turnout.
Azad described it as a “game” being played by the regime. “We don’t trust them and we don’t want to be manipulated again.”
Several people in Tehran with whom I have spoken in recent days have echoed that view.
“It is a duty to vote, but I will not do it,” one law student told the BBC. “Because all previous elections showed that none of the elected presidents have done anything better for the people.”
But others may be lured to the polls by the small glimmer of hope for change that Mr Pezeshkian represents for liberal-minded Iranians.
“I’m going to vote for Pezeshkian,” said Maryam, 54, from Tehran. “I believe that change can only come from within Iran – through reforms.”
She likes that his background is not in the security forces and that he is ‘clean’, with no allegations of corruption against him.
She also hopes that he can improve relations between Iran and the outside world and believes he will win.
If he does, the question is how much room for manoeuvre he will have left.
“Pezeshkian is a reformer in name only,” says Sanam Vakil of think tank Chatham House.
“He supports the Islamic Republic and is very loyal to the supreme leader. His participation could potentially increase public turnout and boost enthusiasm, but one should not expect much more than a change in tone if he is elected.”
