Australia is prepared to rest its leading players for Saturday’s match against Scotland, which is likely to decide England’s fate at the World Cup.
Australia can qualify for the last eight by beating Namibia in Antigua on Tuesday, giving them the luxury of rotating their squad for the final match and resting players for the Super Eights stage.
Australia head coach Andrew McDonald did not rule out resting star names if they qualified with a match to spare. “We need a win to guarantee passage. Then, once we have solidified the qualification, we can look at that potential,” he said.
The Super Eights are determined based on a pre-set seeding system (Scotland would simply replace England if they advance) and teams do not carry over the net run rate to the next round, so there is no incentive for Australia to beat Scotland.
“We’re not really focused on England and where they are,” McDonald said. “England clearly have their own work to do in the next few games. We found ourselves in a similar situation at the last World Cup where we had to hunt for the net run-rate and that is always difficult depending on other results. But that’s up to them to work through it.”
A desperate situation
As long as Australia don’t foul Namibia, and they haven’t lost to an ally in a World Cup since 1983, they and Scotland will go into the final on top of the net run rate calculations needed to knock out England.
It leaves England in a desperate situation and chasing net run rate to get through. They need a swing of almost two runs to see Scotland, who had 41 balls to spare, beat Oman on Sunday to move to five points. Their net run rate is 2.1, England’s is minus 1.8. It’s devilishly complex to work out in advance and depends on the first or second innings, but basically England have to beat Oman and Namibia by 40-50 runs every time or knock out a target very quickly and hope that Scotland hides a bit in Australia to sneak through.
England did not train on Monday, opting for a day off with a long break between Saturday’s defeat to Australia and their next match against Oman on Thursday.
It’s likely they’ll stick with their six batters rather than calling up Ben Duckett as quick runs-scoring is crucial, but Reece Topley is set to return to the side and restore the left-arm variation that has plagued them so much. missed in Barbados. The wind can play a big role at the Sir Vivian Richards Stadium and England cannot afford to adopt a similar attack again. “A lot of players from the Caribbean Premier League thought that wind affects the games here, and it really does,” said McDonald.
Bowling first both times would simplify the complicated mathematical equations, while allowing chasing teams to simply drive for the target, as Scotland did against Oman. Batting first in this way is inherently risky, as too many booming shots can see England 45-5 in the powerplay and in danger of losing.
Archer’s importance
It would make sense for them to bowl first to use up Jofra Archer early so he can take as many wickets as possible to limit the target to one that can be quickly overhauled. No more Will Jacks on the power play, please.
It is a weakness of the tournament that Scotland and Australia will play knowing exactly what they need to do to eliminate England. It is in both their interests to do this. For Scotland it clearly puts them through to the next round. For Australia, that eliminates a rival who could go on the run and beat them in the final, however unlikely that seems at the moment. Australia will know that teams have previously come through a group stage to advance and win a World Cup.
The final group matches of football tournaments are being played simultaneously to avoid collusion after West Germany and Austria secured a 1-0 result at the 1982 World Cup, knowing this would be enough for them both to progress to the next round.
But it is impossible to play the final matches simultaneously in groups of five arranged that way, partly to appease the broadcasters who pay billions of dollars for ICC events, money that keeps countries outside the big three afloat.
Instead, it will be a nervous Saturday evening for England, with the Scotland-Australia match starting the late match of the day at 8.30pm in the evening in Antigua, two hours after England will have finished against Namibia.
Point of no return
There is a terrible feeling among Matthew Mott that this World Cup looks like the end of the Joe Root regime. That too came to a standstill in the Caribbean in 2022, with the team in desperate need of new ideas and a major overhaul.
Exiting the Twenty20 World Cup at the group stages, knocked out by Scotland, would be an humiliation too far after the India debacle and would certainly end Mott’s two years in a four-year contract.
It will also increase pressure on Rob Key, the director of cricket who blasted Mott over his success with the Australian women’s team. Key flew home on Sunday after being able to assess Mott and Jos Buttler first-hand during the first week of the tournament.
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