Nov. 5—HARRISBURG — Top-ranked races are drawing most of the electorate’s attention ahead of the election, but a lower vote will determine whether Republicans regain majority control of the State House and whether the Democrats are moving toward taking control of the state House. the state Senate.
All 203 seats in the state House are up for a vote this fall, with candidates seeking to win a two-year term — the shortest term among state officials, meaning a climate of endless campaigning.
The Democrats have a one-seat majority in the 2023-2024 legislative period. They captured the House in the 2022 midterm elections, after 12 consecutive years of Republican control. Prior to the last two-year term, the Republican Party controlled the House for 24 of the 28 years.
Half of the Senate’s 50 seats are up for grabs, while the remaining 25 will be voted on in 2026. The term of office is four years, which provides greater support for senators between campaigns.
Republicans controlled the Senate for thirty years. As it stands now, it’s a 28-22 split in favor of the Republican Party, but state Democrats see a trajectory over two election cycles to a swing from red to blue in 2026.
Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, often refers to Pennsylvania’s divided government and the difficulty of legislating in such an environment. The 2023-2024 session produced the fewest new laws compared to recent sessions.
The partisan divide also halted efforts to implement both parties’ policy priorities — constitutionally protecting reproductive rights, instituting gun safety measures, requiring universal voter identification in all elections and school vouchers.
Senate races
Of the 25 Senate races, 17 are competitive, at least from the standpoint of having two or more challengers on the ballot. However, two of the competitive races are for open seating.
Sen. James Brewster, a Democrat who serves the 45th Senatorial District, which includes parts of Allegheny County, is retiring after 14 years in office. Rep. Nick Pisciottano, whose House district is in the 45th, appears likely to keep the seat for Democrats. Jen Dintini, a small business owner and first-time candidate, wants to win the district for Republicans.
Democrats have a 45th century voter registration lead, but following a trend across the Commonwealth, Republicans have narrowed the margin, albeit slightly, and the number of independent voters has grown.
Republican Sen. John DiSanto decided not to seek re-election in the 15th Senatorial District, which covers most of Dauphin County, including the state capital, Harrisburg.
The realigned district map favors Democrats, and voters in the district will be familiar with that party’s candidate, Patty Kim, a six-term state representative whose House district includes Harrisburg. She faces Republican Nick DiFrancesco, Dauphin County treasurer and former county commissioner.
Incumbents believed to be in tight races include Republican Senator Devlin Robinson of the 37th Senatorial District covering parts of Allegheny County, Republican Senator Dan Laughlin of the 49th Senatorial District covering parts of Erie County , and Democratic Senator Jimmy Dillon of the 5th Senatorial District, which covers parts of Philadelphia.
House races
In the Pennsylvania House, 110 of the 203 legislative districts have competitive elections.
Democrats have a one-seat majority in the State House. The party’s legislative campaign committee focused on 15 races it considers essential to maintaining and expanding majority control. Of those, six have incumbents trying to keep their districts.
Rep. Brian Munroe narrowly won election to a first term in 2022, representing the 144th Legislative District, by just over 500 votes. The Democrat faces challenger Dan McPhillips, a well-known entity to Republicans since they elected him as Bucks County Recorder of Deeds. He is also financially backed by GOP mega-donor Jeffrey Yass, according to the Bucks County Courier Times.
The 144th covers parts of Bucks County. Republican voters outnumber Democrats in the district, 20,702 to 19,636. That small advantage has more than doubled since the last parliamentary election in 2022, from a margin of 463 voters to 1,066.
Rep. Paul Takac is in a tight battle with Republican challenger Therese Hollen, a retired business owner who also taught in public schools. The 82nd Legislative District covers parts of Center County, including parts of State College.
Voter registration shows Republicans in the district trail Democrats by 1,215 voters, while another 8,462 independents are registered. But Democratic registration has fallen here since 2022, while Republicans made gains, shrinking that margin by 43%.
Rep. Joe Emrick is a seven-term member of the House of Representatives. The Republican represents the 137th Legislative District, which covers parts of Northampton County. He is in a rematch with Democrat Anna Thomas. The two competed in 2022 and Emrick came out ahead with 703 votes. The district’s voter registration shows Democrats trail Republicans by just 919 voters, a 54% drop since the last time Emrick and Thomas faced off.
Republicans see vulnerability in the 72nd Legislative District, where eight-term Frank Burns held office in an increasingly red district. Burns has a track record of breaking with Democratic leadership with conservative voting patterns on several hot-button issues, including firearms. He is being challenged by Republican Amy Bradley, president and CEO of the Cambria Regional Chamber. The district covers parts of Cambria County, including Johnstown. Republicans led Democrats in voter registration with 615 voters in 2022. That grew to 3,662 in just two years, an increase of nearly 500%.
