The NFL season is long and there are dog days involved. It is difficult to be one of the elite teams to play at the top level for four months in a row.
Maybe that’s why the underdogs did well in Week 10. It was a strange week: Going into Sunday’s early period, the underdogs were 7-2 against the spread of the week. Then, in the late window, the favorites went 3-0. But things turned around and the underdogs had coverage Sunday night and Monday night. Overall, it was a 9-5 week for underdogs. We’ll see if this trend continues in week 11.
Here’s a look at Week 11 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all the odds from BetMGM:
Thursday evening: Commanders vs. Eagles are huge in the NFC East
When this matchup was made for Thursday night in Week 11, it seemed like the best-case scenario was that we’d see a Rookie of the Year candidate against a really good NFC East favorite and maybe Jayden Daniels would help the Washington Commanders retain it . near. Instead, it’s one of the best matchups of a stacked Week 11.
The Commanders have already surpassed their season win total of 6.5, starting at 7-2. Not only is Daniels the overwhelming favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, he’s also one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. They lost last week, but are still a contender to win the division. The Philadelphia Eagles are quietly coming into their own, winning all five games since their bye, and Thursday night’s line reflects that the betting market still doesn’t think the Commanders are quite at the Eagles’ level. The Eagles are favorites with 3.5 points and the line is creeping towards Eagles -4. The Eagles are probably the better team and the move against Philadelphia is justified, although Washington has already proven almost everyone wrong this season.
Rivalry renewed: Ravens at Steelers
Baltimore Ravens vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers have produced some great games over the years. No one thought this first meeting would be for first place in the AFC North.
The fact that the Ravens are 7-3 is no surprise, but the Steelers’ 7-2 record is unexpected. They have played well all season, and the offense improved when Russell Wilson took over as the team’s starting quarterback. But there is skepticism about them. That’s one reason why the Steelers are 3-point underdogs at home against the Ravens and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Even more surprising is that the Ravens are a -300 favorite to win the division. That’s surprising considering it’s mid-November and the Steelers have a half-game lead. Those odds will change if the Steelers win this one at home.
Interesting underdog: Chicago Bears
Last week we saw the New Orleans Saints get their first week boost with a new coach and win with interim coach Darren Rizzi. Does the same apply to new offensive coordinators?
It appears the Bears were ready for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. His plans were bad for Caleb Williams and the Bears offense was terrible. Thomas Brown intervenes and things couldn’t be much worse. The Green Bay Packers are a 5.5-point road favorite, which seems high. We’ll see if the Bears have a little more spice with a new offensive play-caller.
Game of the Year?: Bills take on the Chiefs
For all the talk about the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated record, if the Buffalo Bills beat them at home on Sunday, they will be one game behind with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. This is a huge game that will determine the top spot in the AFC playoffs.
The Bills are favorites by 2.5 points. That shows respect for the Bills being favored over a 9-0 defending champion. It also shows some respect for the Chiefs that the line is less than a full field goal. The Bills were coming off losses to the Ravens and Texans, but both games got going. This is a prove-it game for Buffalo, and it could also go a long way toward securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC for Kansas City. BetMGM’s odds for the AFC’s No. 1 seed are Chiefs at -400 and Bills at +450, and if you want the Bills to win on Sunday, it might be smart to take them as the No. 1 pick as well.
Player prop of the week: Anthony Richardson passed away
Anthony Richardson was benched a few weeks ago because he didn’t play well enough for the Indianapolis Colts. Then he got the job back because Joe Flacco wasn’t good either.
Richardson goes on the road this week against a disappointing but talented New York Jets defense, and his passing yardage prop is 177.5. Richardson had more than 175 passing yards in four of his six games this season. Has he changed as a quarterback after being benched for two weeks? Probably not. There is always a danger in putting the under on Richardson as he can complete a 70-yard pass at any time, but that is probably what he needs to hit the over.
Sunday night: Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert
Burrow and Herbert are two of the quarterback stars from a loaded 2020 NFL Draft class, and they face off on Sunday night. The Cincinnati Bengals, at 4-6, need to start winning now. But it won’t be easy against a 6-3 Los Angeles Chargers team.
It’s a great list for Week 11 and Sunday night’s game should be entertaining as well. The Chargers are a slight home favorite by 1.5 points. The main question is: can the Bengals defense slow down the Chargers?
Monday night: Unfortunately, the Cowboys
Enjoy Thursday and Sunday, because Monday night is a terrible dessert for a great meal. The Houston Texans take on an inept Dallas Cowboys team. The Cowboys were bad with Dak Prescott and looked much worse without him last week. Cooper Rush took over for Prescott, who had 45 yards on 23 attempts last week. Gross.
The Texans haven’t exactly been great lately either. They just blew a lead and lost at home to a Detroit Lions team that threw five interceptions. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite, which makes sense, but most importantly, this game is a good argument for including Monday night games in the flex schedules.
