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Virginia is a fundamental part of President Joe Biden’s road map to winning a second term.
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However, recent polls in the state show Biden and Trump tied or nearly tied among voters.
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Republicans now believe Trump has a fighting chance in the state.
In 2020, it was a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden would win Virginia in that year’s presidential contest.
Four years earlier, Donald Trump lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, even as he captured the White House. Trump never built a solid political base in Virginia, and his unpopularity there led to major Republican losses in state legislative races in 2017 and 2019 — especially in suburban swing districts.
Biden’s significant standing among Black voters, independents and voters aged 18 to 29 helped the former vice president to a huge 10-point victory over Trump in Virginia in 2020.
But as the 2024 election enters its critical summer window, recent polls show Biden and Trump now deadlocked in Virginia, a development that has major implications for both candidates.
Will Biden have to spend time campaigning in a state he already had in his bag? Will Trump get a third look from voters who previously rejected him twice?
Here’s a look at where the race stands in Virginia, where Biden has some key advantages ahead of November:
Why is Biden staying behind in Virginia?
The latest Fox News survey of registered voters in Virginia found Biden and Trump tied at 48% in support, while Biden held a one-point lead (42% to 41%) when the race included third-party candidates. A Roanoke College poll conducted last month found Biden and Trump tied at 42% support among likely voters, with 8% of respondents saying they would support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would support.
These numbers represent a softening on Biden’s part, as he won 54% of the state’s votes in 2020, compared to Trump’s 44%.
In the Fox News poll, Biden had a 42% favorability rating and a 43% job approval rating, consistent with many of his national polls. While Virginia has largely trended Democratic in recent years, Biden’s numbers are a reminder that it is not a reliably blue state, but one with a blue tint. (The 2021 election of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin reflects that.)
While Virginia voters give Biden high marks on issues like climate change, abortion rights and election integrity, it is Trump who comes out on top on issues like the economy, the war between Israel and Hamas and immigration.
With the last three issues routinely among voters’ top concerns, this has left Trump polling competitively with Biden in Virginia.
The Fox News poll also found that Trump won an unusually high 25% of black voters, a figure that, if realized, would mark a modern record for a Republican presidential candidate in the state. And the survey found there was no gap in the polls between voters aged 18 to 29 and voters aged 65 and over, with candidates tied at 48% in both age groups.
What boosts Biden’s chances in the state?
In recent years, Democrats have strengthened their support in Virginia’s most populous regions — from Northern Virginia to the Richmond metropolitan area and out to Hampton Roads. These areas contain dozens of suburban communities where moderates from both parties, as well as independents, generally decide statewide elections.
Many of these voters are leaning toward Biden, given their most recent voting trends.
In the Fox News poll, Biden led Trump among independents (45% to 43%), despite his diminished standing in the state. And Biden still retained robust majorities of college-educated voters (56%) and suburban women (58%) — blocs critical to the president and Democrats who lost the election.
And in Northern Virginia – an electoral goldmine for the Democrats – Trump remains unpopular. If turnout is high in the region, Trump will need to post huge numbers of people in rural Virginia and the state’s suburbs to win.
Youngkin said in a recent interview with Fox News that recent polls meant Virginia would be “in play” in November.
But polls closer to Labor Day will likely provide a clearer picture of the true nature of Virginia’s competitiveness, as many voters will not be following the election — while some currently leaning toward third-party candidates may return to Biden’s fold.
Read the original article on Business Insider
