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Biden is currently trailing Trump in several critical battleground states before November.
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But of all the swing states, Wisconsin is largely the most receptive to Biden’s message.
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Biden has maintained a significant level of support from the state’s bloc of white non-college voters.
In 2020, Wisconsin was one of Joe Biden’s most significant election victories as he successfully recaptured the Midwestern swing state narrowly won by Donald Trump in 2016.
Although Democrats must perform strongly in the liberal population centers of Milwaukee and Madison to win statewide elections, the party still maintains a significant level of support in many rural communities. And it’s Biden’s support among white voters without a college degree — a huge voting bloc in these areas — that is currently keeping him afloat in Wisconsin.
Of the seven major swing states, Biden is currently at least three points behind Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, according to Real Clear Polling averages.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden has smaller deficits to Trump in the polling averages.
But in Wisconsin, Biden is often tied with Trump in the polls, or has a small lead. And it is the support of many white, working-class voters that has been crucial for the president.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll found Biden ahead of Trump by six points (50% to 44%) among registered voters, while a recent Cook Political Report survey found Biden and Trump tied among Wisconsin voters had a tie of 45%.
In the Quinnipiac poll, Wisconsin voters gave Biden positive marks on issues such as abortion rights and preserving democracy. But even when asked who could better handle international conflict — where Trump has taken a lead in many recent polls — former President Biden led by only one point (48% to 47%).
When it came to economic issues, Trump held an eight-point lead over Biden in Wisconsin (52% to 44%), according to Quinnipiac, a relatively stable number for the incumbent president on an issue on which he has struggled in the national polls . For Biden, the Wisconsin number represents a much more positive view of voters compared to his standing in states like Arizona and Nevada.
Among white voters in Wisconsin, Biden actually led Trump by four points (50% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll. And college-educated white voters in Wisconsin supported Biden by 27 points (61% to 34%).
But among white voters without a college degree, Biden trailed Trump by just eight points (44% to 52%), a deficit far smaller than in virtually every other swing state.
That Biden has been able to maintain a significant level of support from this voting bloc — despite their overall migration to the Republican Party — demonstrates the uniqueness of the president’s electoral coalition in Wisconsin.
And it’s a coalition that could help send him back to the White House, especially if he’s also able to capture the Omaha-anchored 2nd Congressional District of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska — in addition to the core of blue states that make up the base forms of every Democratic party. presidential victory.
“To win, Democrats need to vastly outperform white, working-class voters in the state, because most voters in Wisconsin are white, working-class voters,” Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, recently told The WashingtonPost. “No one active in politics forgets that for a second.”
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