President Joe Biden has edged ahead of former President Donald Trump in a Fox News poll about a hypothetical matchup between the two for the first time since October, a shift since Trump was convicted on all counts in his hush-money trial in Manhattan.
The Fox News poll found that 50% of voters surveyed would cast their ballots for Biden, while 48% would do so for Trump in a two-way race. That’s a shift of two percentage points since the network’s last poll in May, where Trump led Biden 49% to 48%.
The results are within the margin of error.
But it’s the first time Biden has performed ahead of Trump in a Fox News poll since October 2023, and it comes amid other signs that the former president’s trial may have left a lasting impression on voters before the two men next entered the debate stage in Atlanta this week. A jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying company records to cover up a hush money payment to the porn star Stormy Daniels last month marked the first time an American president had ever been convicted of a crime.
Biden himself has had some political victories and some struggles in recent weeks. His son, Hunter Biden, was found guilty earlier this month of illegally possessing a weapon. But the Biden administration is gaining ground on the president’s work to stimulate the economy.
About a third of respondents told Fox News they felt good or excellent about the economy, the highest point in Biden’s presidency.
The poll yielded a number of other notable findings. Independent voters polled by Fox News favored Biden by 9 percentage points. In May, the demographics were 2 points in Trump’s favor, a dramatic shift.
“The underlying demographic trends that shaped the race persist,” Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who conducts the surveys with a Democratic colleague, told Fox News. “Biden has made some improvement among women and seniors, helping him stay afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”
Biden also leads in a possible five-way matchup when independent candidates are included, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West. 43% of respondents said they would vote for the president, while 42% chose Trump.
The Fox News poll was conducted among 1,100 registered voters nationwide, with a 3% margin of error.
