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Presidential candidates generally drive higher turnout for their respective parties.
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But many Democrats can boast higher favorability ratings than that Bidentheir popularity could boost his campaign.
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Swing-state Senate candidates like Bob Casey Jr. and Tammy Baldwin, could be Biden’s greatest assets.
In most presidential elections, the top candidates are the top drawers for their respective parties, garnering votes that often help win close races.
But for several popular swing-state Democrats, their popularity could actually help boost turnout in support of President Joe Biden’s reelection bid — a reversal of the usual presidential effect.
It’s a dynamic that may keep Biden in the White House for another four years. He remains locked in a tight battle with former President Donald Trump in must-win swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Pennsylvania elections
In Pennsylvania, the latest RealClearPolling average showed Trump ahead of Biden by just over two points. But the more popular Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. averages a more robust 4.8% lead over his Republican rival, David McCormick.
Casey, a former state auditor general and former state treasurer who is seeking a fourth term, has held a statewide position in Pennsylvania for decades. Such a track record gives him a connection with many voters that Biden may miss, especially in an era when ticket sharing has become less common in federal races. (A notable advantage for Biden: His decades-long political career in Delaware made him a familiar face in the Philadelphia media market.)
In an interview with The Washington Post, Casey said he expects a tougher battle as more people become familiar with McCormick.
“The way I see it, my race is different from the president’s because my opponent is not as well known as his opponent,” he told the newspaper. “I think ultimately we will probably see similar numbers in both races.”
Casey’s race is poised to be a big draw, especially for Democratic voters who want the party to continue to control the U.S. Senate. McCormick, who ran for the Republican Senate nomination in 2022, is a top recruit for the party this cycle.
And in Pennsylvania, where Biden beat Trump by one point in the 2020 election, the race could be decided by a few thousand — or a few hundred — votes.
Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who has represented a swing district in the Lehigh Valley since 2018, told the Post that a solid victory in a seat like hers will be critical to the president’s chances in November.
“I truly believe that Biden will only win Pennsylvania if the people who don’t vote, like me, win. “I strongly believe we are putting pressure on him,” she said.
The Wisconsin elections
In Wisconsin, where he narrowly won in 2020, Biden is locked in a close race with Trump: Trump leads the president by less than half a percentage point, according to the RealClearPolling average in the Badger State.
However, in two major surveys of the battle for the US Senate, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin had a wide lead over her likely Republican opponent, Eric Hovde. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Baldwin with a 12-point lead over Hovde, while a New York Times/Siena College poll from late April to early May showed the senator with a nine-point lead.
Baldwin’s popularity in Wisconsin could also give Biden a significant boost in the state, especially with renewed enthusiasm among Democratic voters over the state’s redrawn legislative maps, which will give the party significant gains in the upcoming elections.
Read the original article on Business Insider
