Despite a rather turbulent opening game against Idaho and Boise State (37-34), Oregon (12-0) made the necessary adjustments, allowing the Ducks to finish the regular season undefeated. The Ducks’ No. 2 SP+ offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and expected turnover margin. Despite brutal efficiency metrics, Oregon isn’t as explosive as their 2023 version, ranking 86th in passes of 20+ yards (15.1%) and 94th in yards per successful rush (9.0). Defensively, their secondary is excellent, ranking fifth in passing percentage, but OU was sensitive on the ground, ranking 80th in EPA/rush and 75th in yards per successful rush.
The Nittany Lions (11-1) cruised through the first half and their closest win was a thrilling comeback victory in Week 7, 33-30 over @USC, where PSU posted an 86% win expectancy. They were so dominant that each of their other 10 wins came with a near-perfect win expectancy of over 94% as PSU demonstrated non-Ohio State mastery of their B10 schedule. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks third in success rate, fifth in EPA/play and eighth in marginal efficiency. There are shortcomings, however: PSU ranks a dismal 97th in yards per successful play and 85th in explosiveness, showing an unwillingness to take risks downfield. The Nittany Lions Defense is once again elite, ranking third in SP+ and their lockdown defensive backfield allowing just 5.0 yards per dropback. Projected Top 15 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 17th with an 8.3% sack rate and 10th with a 40.3% pressure rate.
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Game details and how to watch the Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon
· Date: Saturday December 7, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
· City: Indianapolis, IN
· TV/streaming: CBS
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Big Ten Championship Game Odds: Penn State vs. Oregon
The latest odds from Tuesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
The spread opened at an even Oregon -3 and fluctuated between -2.5 and -3.5 before reaching a consensus of -3.5 at the time of publication. The window to become Oregon’s moneyline was open, peaking from -148 to a current range of -170 and -180. Conversely, the PSU dropped to +124 and is now available at a maximum of +155. We initially had a game total of 51.5, which has since dropped to 49.5 at most stores.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Wisconsin just took Oregon to the wire in a 16-13 nail-biter, while Penn State escaped with a one-point win over Minnesota two weeks ago. With these two teams being pretty close in my opinion, and PSU very much in play on a neutral playing field, I think the value on Penn State is on the moneyline for a tidy +150 return.
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.
Penn State and Oregon betting trends and recent stats
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Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks second among Power Four tight ends with 101 targets. TE Oronde Gadsden leads with 103 goals.
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Nicholas Singleton has rushed for more than 10 yards on 12 of his 47 carries in the second half of this season (25.5%), which ranks second among Power Four Running Backs. UCF RB RJ Harvey leads with a 27.4% rush rate from beyond 10 yards.
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Penn State has allowed two rushing TDs on 35 carries in the Red Zone this season — best in the Power Four.
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Drew Allar has completed 71.6% of his passes this season, ranking 5th among all qualified quarterbacks. Oregon’s defense has allowed a completion percentage of just 55.5% this season, 13th-best among FBS defenses.
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Oregon’s secondary has been at its best when the game is on the line, with just two first downs on 28 targets in close and late situations, the lowest completion percentage allowed among P4 programs.
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Terrance Ferguson has been targeted 15 times in the Red Zone this season, second most among P4 Tight Ends. Syracuse TE Oronde Gadsden ranks first in the P4 with 16 RZ goals.
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QB Dillon Gabriel has completed 76% of passes in close & late situations (19 of 25), the third highest mark in the P4. Washington QB Will Rogers is #1 completing 17 of 21 passes (81%).
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Oregon is 1-5 (.167) against the spread when converting fewer than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, and ranks sixth worst in FBS (average: .440)
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (last week to now)
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Oregon +400 to +350
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Georgia +400 to +450
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Notre Dame +1400 to +900
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Alabama +4000 to +2200
Highest ticket%
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State of Ohio 13.2%
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Texas 10.9%
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Georgia 10.2%
Highest Handle%
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State of Ohio 16.1%
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Georgia 14.3%
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Alabama 11.7%
Biggest obligations
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Colorado
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Alabama
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State of Ohio
Quarterback matchup for Penn State in Oregon
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Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar suffered a knee injury and was questionable ahead of their pivotal game at Ohio State, but the grizzled vet was able to work it out in the 20-13 loss. Despite the slight step back from OSU, Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 87.4 PFF overall grade and handles the rush expertly, ranking sixth in FBS with a 70% under pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks second in success rate and ranks first on 62% of their completions (8th). As Allar enters his third and possibly final season in Happy Valley, it is time for Penn State to compete for the national championship.
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Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign and has amassed an impressive 18,140 passing yards and a 149-to-32 ratio during his illustrious career. He completes 73.5% of his throws (#2 in FBS) for 8.7 YPA and a 24-to-6 ratio for the still-undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average target depth among 93 qualifying signal callers. The emphasis on short-yardage passing explains Oregon’s unusually low explosive success rate of 15.1%, which ranks 86th in FBS. Oregon currently has a bright completion percentage of 73.6% (1st in FBS), and Gabriel will benefit from the presence of star WR Tez Johnson in the lineup after returning to action last Saturday.
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