I know. You probably expected me to set a higher target price for it Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). After all, everyone does it.
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Fundstrat Global Advisors partner Tom Lee sees $150,000 per coin as a “base case” in 2024.
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British Money Center Bank Analysts Standard chartered recently agreed with Fundstrat’s forecast of $150,000, saying they expect another move to $250,000 next year.
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Cathie Wood of Ark Invest always thought Bitcoin would hit $600,000 by 2024, on its way to a goal of $1.5 million by 2030. She hasn’t updated the short-term target lately, but her 2030 target is now $3, 8 million per Bitcoin.
And to be honest, I have set a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin myself, but not for this year. I expect that milestone to be reached in 2025 or 2026. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle of price increases points to another dramatic price increase following the mining reward halving in April – but don’t expect that increase to materialize right away.
Bitcoin’s price movements after halvings 1, 2 and 3
First and foremost, there is a clear pattern to be found in Bitcoin’s price charts after each halving.
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From the summer of 2012 to the fall of 2013, Bitcoin’s price experienced significant growth. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin experienced its first halving, around the price of $12 per digital coin. In late November 2013, Bitcoin’s price peaked at around $1,100 during the first halving cycle.
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On July 9, 2016, with a price around $650, Bitcoin experienced its second halving. In December 2017, the price peaked at almost $20,000 before falling to around $6,500 in April 2018. That was the peak period of the second Bitcoin halving cycle.
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On May 11, 2020, it was time for the third Bitcoin halving, with the price around $9,000 as the world grappled with the impact of COVID-19 for the first time. By November 2021, Bitcoin’s price had reached a new all-time high of nearly $69,000, reflecting increased institutional interest and widespread adoption.
You see the pattern, right? Every halving so far has been followed by an impressive price gain, but always with a significant delay. Here’s how long it took for Bitcoin to reach the peak of each halving cycle, counting from the date of each mining reward cut:
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1 year, 1 day
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1 year, 5 months, 8 days
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1 year, 5 months, 30 days
From this perspective, it is obvious that the fourth halving should result in a new peak price, but not until spring 2025. Anything faster would mean a significant acceleration of the market reaction after the halving.
Why every Bitcoin halving is different
Of course, every halving event is unique. In 2012, the first was busy mapping completely unknown waters. Four years later, investors and Bitcoin miners were unsure whether the halving cycle would trigger similar market reactions twice. In 2020, COVID-19 threw a spanner in the works, but in many ways the same old pattern was still playing out.
So here we are in 2024, waiting to see how exactly the next cycle will play out. All kinds of theories have been proposed and researched, but only time will tell.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs caused Bitcoin’s price to rise a few months before this halving. Will the leading cryptocurrency simply follow the previous pattern from a higher starting point, or will the expected post-halving surge be undermined by a richer starting price?
When it comes to the exact shape of Bitcoin’s future price chart, your guess is as good as mine. Historical patterns suggest a slow burn in 2024, followed by a sharp peak in early 2025. The real world doesn’t always conform to previous patterns, but the market has built a fairly consistent set of reactions to Bitcoin’s halving cycles.
What to expect from Bitcoin in the coming years
I’m not a fan of technical analysis. Unexpected events can take the wind out of the sails, or propel a select handful of stocks to new heights without warning. That’s why I hesitate to give a specific target price for Bitcoin at the end of 2024. Previous graph contortions quickly lose all meaning when confronted with surprises in the real world.
However, the long-term upward trend is undeniable, and is backed by the pure mathematics of Bitcoin’s inner workings. So the cryptocurrency appears poised for some modest gains as the post-halving economy evolves before our eyes, regardless of whether regulators help or hinder them. A 15% gain to $80,000 seems fair enough, followed by the usual increase after the halving next year.
Don’t expect the coin to go to the moon in 2024, but feel free to build a long-term Bitcoin position to take advantage of the fourth halving wave – followed by the fifth in 2028, the sixth in 2032, and so forth. .
The real Bitcoin wealth will belong to long-term investors with robust patience and a willingness to buy more Bitcoin during the inevitable dips along the way.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool holds and recommends positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $80,000 by 2024 originally published by The Motley Fool
