Incumbent U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and former President Donald Trump continue to maintain a comfortable lead among Tennessee voters in the final days before early voting begins, according to a new poll from the conservative Beacon Center of Tennessee.
The poll of 1,200 likely voters in Tennessee, conducted from September 27 to October 8, also found reduced support for government-funded private school vouchers, distrust of both local and national media among Republicans, and dissatisfaction from both parties about self-driving car services.
The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
These are the most important conclusions from the poll.
Blackburn has a 23-point lead over Johnson in the race for the US Senate
Blackburn’s lead over challenger Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, has doubled since the spring. Blackburn now has a comfortable 23-point lead over Johnson. That’s more than a 20-point lead ActiVote reported in September, a 16-point lead in April’s Beacon poll and an 11-point lead in the spring Vanderbilt University poll.
Of the 954 likely voters polled by Beacon in the Senate race, 54% said they would vote for Blackburn, while 31% said they would support Johnson. Independent candidate Pamela Moses received 5% support.
Regardless of who voters said they would support in the race, 30% of likely voters say Blackburn is “too conservative,” while 36% say Johnson is “too liberal.” Of those, 15% of Republicans described Blackburn as “too conservative,” while 21% said she was “not conservative enough.” Meanwhile, 15% of Democrats described Johnson as “too liberal or progressive,” while 14% called her “not liberal or progressive enough.”
Harris outperforms Biden against Trump; Trump still has a 21-point lead
Former President Donald Trump has a 21-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the first Beacon poll since Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Of the 971 likely voters surveyed during the presidential race in Tennessee, 56% said they would vote for Trump, and 35% said they would support Harris. Harris is outperforming President Joe Biden in a matchup against Trump, with only 28% of respondents saying they would support Biden for a second term. Twenty percent of Democrats in Tennessee said that if Biden were still in the race, they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump or someone else.
Trump significantly outperforms Harris among independent voters in Tennessee, with 52% of independents, compared to Harris’s 24%.
“While Trump continues to maintain a large lead in Tennessee, Harris, who is outperforming Biden, gives an increasingly nervous Democratic Party good news,” Beacon spokesman Mark Cunningham said. “The seven-point difference between Harris and Biden is remarkable, and in a race that is essentially a toss-up, it would be a welcome sign for Democrats if Harris were to outperform Biden’s 23-point loss in Tennessee, especially considering Trump’s recent momentum. .”
When asked which presidential candidate could handle disaster recovery more effectively, voters are likely to favor Trump by 23 points.
Kennedy will likely get Republican votes from Trump
Trump wore the deep red Tennessee in 2016 and 2020 and will likely do so again this year. (The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Tennessee was President Bill Clinton in 1996.)
But polls show that Kennedy, who ran as an independent candidate, was able to pull votes away from the former president.
Although Kennedy dropped out of the race in August and endorsed Trump, he remains on the ballot in Tennessee. Accordingly, 7% of likely Republican voters who voted for Trump in 2020 said they would vote for Kennedy over Trump this year, while 2% of Democratic voters said they would vote for Kennedy.
Although there are other presidential candidates on the ballot, no other presidential candidates received significant support. Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1% of Republicans, while Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver drew 4% of independents, and neither major party.
58% say they would vote for candidates who support school choice
Support for taxpayer-funded school choice policies has declined since July, though most voters still say they would be more likely to favor pro-school choice candidates.
Fifty-eight percent of voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who “supports school choice policies, which allow parents to choose their child’s school (public, private, charter or homeschool) using public funding.” Overall, 18% of likely voters said they would be less likely to support such candidates.
That’s down from July, when 69% of Tennesseans from both parties, including 61% of Democrats, said they would support expanding school choice vouchers to all counties in the state.
Now, more Democrats than Republicans say they would support school choice candidates: 58% of Democrats said they would support school choice candidates — down 3 points from July — while 56% of Republicans said they would. On the other hand, 21% of Democrats said they would be less likely to support pro-school choice candidates. Republicans were likely neutral on the issue, with 23% saying they would not be more or less likely to support a school choice candidate.
The policy for state-funded vouchers for private schools has been championed exclusively by Republicans, while Democrats have strongly opposed the voucher policy.
Republicans distrust local, national media
When asked what types of media voters trust to report news accurately and fairly, Democrats largely rely on local television news (75%), local newspapers (71%), local radio news (68%), and national cable television news (61%). ), while far fewer Republicans say they trust any media genre.
Republican voters had the most confidence in local network TV (55%), local talk radio (53%), local radio news (53%) and local newspapers (51%). Republicans reported greater distrust of national broadcasters, including national talk radio (44% distrust) and national cable television news (49% distrust).
Many voters from both parties reported distrust in online media, with 56% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats saying they distrust online media. There is also strong bipartisan distrust of news on social media, with 67% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats distrusting social media.
Tennesseans are hesitant about driverless car services
With self-driving car services like Waymo and Cruise now available in cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix, most Tennesseans are not yet comfortable using such a service. Earlier this year, federal safety investigators began scrutinizing Waymo after the agency reported nearly two dozen single-vehicle collisions or traffic violations, though no injuries were reported.
According to the Beacon survey, only 16% of likely voters said they would be comfortable using an autonomous car service, while 74% said they would not be comfortable doing so. Significantly, more Democrats said they would use a self-driving car, with 25% saying they would be comfortable with it, while 80% of Republicans said they would not.
48% support Biden’s proposed term limits for the US Supreme Court
Tennessee voters are divided over Biden’s proposal to impose term limits on U.S. Supreme Court justices. Of the 12,00 registered voters surveyed, 48% support term limits on the Supreme Court, while 44% oppose term limits. Overall, 49% approve of the Supreme Court’s work.
Voters were divided over the rates
Voters are also divided on tariffs — a key part of Trump’s trade platforms. Forty-one percent of likely voters in Tennessee believe tariffs are necessary to protect American products, even if they temporarily raise costs. Thirty-nine percent believe that tariffs are essentially taxes that raise costs and worsen inflation.
Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Reach her out vjones@tennessean.com or on X at @Vivian_E_Jones.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Blackburn has wide lead over Johnson in Senate race, polls show
