VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make the case for the Biden administration’s expanded engagement with Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region as he visits Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and Mongolia this week and next. The trip comes as the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign gets underway after a series of shocking developments upended the race.
Blinken, who has already adjusted his travel schedule twice since the trip was announced just hours after the president Joe Biden his decision not to seek re-election, arrives in Vientiane, Laos, on Saturday for the annual ASEAN Regional Forum. The security conference brings together foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and regional powers including China, Australia, Japan, Russia, South Korea and India.
All the participants represent either critical U.S. allies and partners or Washington’s two biggest rivals — Moscow and Beijing, who have been moving closer together over the past two years, raising concerns about their combined global influence. Just this week, U.S. and Canadian fighter jets intercepted Chinese and Russian bombers flying together near Alaska. The U.S. has repeatedly accused China wants to help rebuild Russia’s military industrial base that makes it possible to wage war in Ukraine.
Blinken is expected to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Vientiane, but has no plans to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is also attending the ASEAN conference, the State Department said.
Despite, or perhaps because of, its major policy differences with the US on Taiwan, Tibet, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, trade and human rights, China is emerging as a potential challenger to the US for international diplomatic dominance.
Beijing recently brokered a fragile rapprochement between rival Palestinian factions, negotiated a preliminary deal with the Philippines to end escalating clashes over their competing maritime claims in the South China Sea, agreed to work with India to withdraw tens of thousands of troops along the disputed Himalayan border and hosted Ukraine’s foreign minister.
Despite claims by US officials that Biden’s decision to step down will not affect the administration’s foreign policy during his final six months in office, many questions remain about his priorities before he leaves the White House and the path his successor will take.
While there was no talk of Blinken canceling his travel plans after Biden’s announcement, his time and meetings in Laos have been cut nearly in half since the trip was originally announced, with two short stops added in Vietnam and Mongolia.
While the presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, might be expected to closely match Biden’s approach, the Republican challenger Donald Trump could bring about major changes, particularly in terms of security obligations toward America’s Asian allies, notably Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
“Foreign leaders and adversaries now face not only new uncertainty about the outcome of an election that Trump seemed to have within his grasp, but also uncertainty about how the policies of a winning Democratic candidate would differ from those of Biden,” said Danny Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific in the Obama administration who is currently vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.
“This calls for a cautious, wait-and-see attitude, especially for China,” he said.
Blinken will use the trip to reassure partners that “America is all about the Indo-Pacific,” said Dan Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia. “The United States has been an Indo-Pacific power for more than a century and will continue to be an Indo-Pacific power.”
“We’re going to do everything we can to demonstrate that commitment over the next several months,” Kritenbrink told reporters earlier this week. He dismissed concerns about the presidential campaign, but added: “We’re trying to convince allies and partners that there are certain fundamental things about America’s engagement that will not change, that have been consistent.”
Among those constants over the past six decades were the large U.S. troop deployments in Japan and South Korea and a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. During his first term, Trump cast doubt on the usefulness of U.S. alliances around the world and proposed reducing or eliminating the U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea.
As part of his Asia tour, Blinken will be joined by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Tokyo and Manila, where they will meet with their Japanese and Philippine counterparts to strengthen their defense cooperation “in light of the truly growing and unprecedented threats in the region,” Kritenbrink said.
And analysts like Russel say Biden can direct his team to increase engagement. “Leaders who might have effectively written him off now find themselves with an undisturbed Joe Biden, focused on expanding his substantial legacy and unencumbered by the burden of campaigning,” Russel said.
