Boston fans have the brooms out.
Mavericks fans want to see their team win one at home (then they can start dreaming of a historic comeback).
The Celtics have been much the better team through the first three games of the NBA Finals, largely because of their depth of talent. It’s not just that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have been great, it’s their ability to defend one-on-one and not send two to the ball. It’s guys like Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1 and Jrue Holiday in Game 2 who have stepped up. Dallas’ role players are skilled and their big star, Luka Doncic, has been targeted and exposed by the Boston offense.
Does that change for Game 4, or is the conversation about where this Celtics team should be ranked historically? Let’s break it down.
Betting Odds for NBA Finals Game 4
Boston Celtics (-115) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-105)
Spread: Mavericks -1 | O/U: 211.5
Injury news, updates
• Kristaps Porzingis is officially questionable for Game 4, as he was for Game 3 (which he missed with a “torn medial retinaculum, allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon”). While Shams Charania of The Athletic reports that there’s a chance he could play, other reports — and a medical professional NBC Sports spoke to — think he’s unlikely to return to this series. The injury is so rare that no one knows for sure, but after winning Game 3, it seems doubtful Boston will push him to play in Game 4. Ultimately, Boston’s team doctors will make the decision.
• Luka Doncic is listed as “probable” with a chest bruise that has been bothering him for a few games.
Three things to watch out for in Game 4
1) Which team loses focus
It feels like a game where one team lets go of the rope.
I hope I’m wrong, I hope we get an exciting, dramatic match that goes all the way. I just don’t expect it.
Does Dallas just roll over after a big run from Boston in the second or third quarter? Expect the Mavericks to come out of the gate with pure desperation and energy, but we’ll find out just how mentally tough the Mavericks are when the Celtics make their inevitable run.
Does Boston know in the back of its mind that it can close this out at home on Monday and take its foot off the gas pedal? I don’t expect it – Jaylen Brown won’t let them, Joe Mazzulla has the team watching orca and hyena hunting videos just for this moment, and it’s not how these Celtics have played all postseason – but this team can historically go on free shooting nights and kiss a bit. The pressure isn’t on them in Game 4, which could impact teams.
Let’s hope that’s not the case, for the sake of the fans and all of us who watch. However, this feels like the night someone lets go of the rope.
2) How well does Luka Doncic defend?
Rarely does a story around a player change as quickly as the one around Doncic. He’s gone from “Why wasn’t he an MVP?” after building very good defenses in the Thunder and Magic to “He’ll never win until he learns to defend better” after Boston targets him.
“In this playoff series, when you talk about from the [first round against the] Clippers to today, their defense has improved,” said Mavericks coach Jason Kidd, defending his star. “But when you look at the involvement in every pick-and-roll, mistakes are going to happen. That’s just the game of basketball. We just have to limit those mistakes.
“But he’s involved in every possession. That’s what the Celtics are really good at: making sure that when they go chasing, they get the guy they want. And so for us, we’ve got to do a better job.” Protect Luka.”
It’s too much to ask one player to be the primary offensive creator and an elite defender, and Doncic gets worn down and struggles in the fourth (Doncic has four fourth-quarter fouls and three fourth-quarter buckets in this series). Doncic also became frustrated, which led to him fouling out of Game 3 when he got some bad reach-in fouls and started barking at the referees more and more often.
The problem comes back to Boston’s depth and ruthlessness: they don’t roll out a player where you can hide a weak defender, and they are very deliberate in how they go after Doncic or whatever weakness they see.
“Luka is a great player. I want to start by saying that. He does a lot for their team,” said Jaylen Brown, Doncic’s primary defender. “Offensively, he has the ball in his hands a lot. It’s a tough task for him. He’s been strong. Even with that fourth quarter and those stats, he’s still been able to accomplish pretty much everything he wants.”
Boston doesn’t change its game plan; it will hunt Doncic. He needs to do better on defense, but Kidd is right when he says Dallas needs to do a better job of getting him off the ball and finding spots where he can catch his breath.
3) Does Jaylen Brown lock down Finals MVP?
Jaylen Brown is the clear frontrunner for NBA Finals MVP. He leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 24.7 points per game while shooting 55.1% in this series while being Luka Doncic’s primary defender. No other Celtic has been as consistent as Brown’s
energy has driven this team forward.
If the Celtics end this series with a sweep on Friday night – or even if it is five games – Brown will likely receive the Bill Russell Finals MVP Trophy.
However, Tatum – despite some shooting issues at points in the series – is lurking and the recency bias is real. If Tatum has a big game (or games) to close out this series while Brown struggles, the ground could shift.
It’s hard to imagine Brown having an off game like he has throughout the postseason, especially against Indiana and Dallas (he was also the Eastern Conference Finals MVP). His play likely locks up the Finals MVP, but in a series without much drama, this is something to watch.
