RENO, Nev. – When Vice President Kamala Harris answered a question at Univision’s town hall this month about immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally as children, Elvira Diaz began to applaud.
Sitting with other Harris supporters at a watch party at Taqueria Jalisco in Reno, holding Harris campaign signs that read “¡Cuando Luchamos Ganamos!” (“If we fight, we win!”) along the walls, Diaz had waited to hear the vice president talk about so-called Dreamers, as such immigrants are known.
But she worries other Latino voters aren’t hearing Harris’ message.
“I really want her to be louder about it because she knows what she’s talking about,” said Diaz, an activist and Mexican immigrant who wore a Harris campaign button and an American flag headband at the watch party. “And I want the Dreamers and the immigrants to know about her. That way she can win the election.”
Latino voters like Diaz are a crucial part of the electorate in Nevada and other battleground states, including Arizona and Pennsylvania, that will help determine which party controls the White House and Congress. In 2020, Latino voters made up 17 percent of the state’s electorate, and President Joe Biden won them by 26 points, according to NBC News exit polls. Two years ago, Latino voters were key to Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s narrow reelection victory, carrying them by 33 points.
“They are crucial at every level of the ticket,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha.
But while Democrats have long had an edge among Latino voters, Republicans think they have an opening.
A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll of Latino voters showed Harris with a 14-point lead among Latinos over former President Donald Trump, the lowest for a Democrat in the four most recent presidential elections.
Republicans are especially optimistic they can make gains among working-class Latino voters in Nevada, which has been hit hard by the Covid pandemic and previously high inflation.
“It could be the best environment Republicans have seen in a presidential year in 20 years,” said Nevada Republican Party strategist Jeremy Hughes, noting Republicans’ lead in dealing with the economy and the movement among Latino voters.
“These ingredients put the state in play,” Hughes said.
It’s the economy
Strategists from both parties believe they can shore up support among Latino voters by focusing their messages on the economy.
“Hispanics, like almost every American, have been devastated by Kamala Harris and Bidenomics, and they will vote with their wallets this election,” said David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth Action, which has spent millions on ads in the United States. States. the Senate races of Nevada and Arizona, including Spanish-speaking spots.
Jesus Marquez, a Republican consultant in Nevada who served on the National Hispanic Advisory Board during Trump’s administration, said Trump is appealing to Latino voters frustrated by high costs.
“The American Dream is virtually disappearing because of the cost of living,” Marquez said. “It’s just a big burden for Latinos to have to pay a lot more – 20, 30 to 40% sometimes, for food, for rent and housing, everything.”
Democrats also believe a broader message could sway Latino voters.
“Immigration used to be a big deal,” said Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., as she attended a phone bank party in Las Vegas in early October to support the reelection of Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. campaign.
“And now they’re still worried about Dreamers, but we just have to talk about the issues that affect everyone: the economy, education for your children, health care for your parents,” Titus said. “That’s what the Latino community wants to hear and identify with. And just to know that they are seen and that we are here, even in my poor Spanish with a southern accent.”
The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found that the largest share of Latino voters (34%) said the cost of living was the most important issue facing the country, followed by jobs and the economy (20%) and threats to democracy (16%). Immigration and the situation at the border rank fourth, with 11% saying it is the most important issue.
Rocha, the Democratic strategist, said his party should also emphasize “an economically populist message” to Latino voters, especially in Nevada, where many voters work in the service industry.
Rocha believes Democrats have an advantage among the state’s Latino voters because they have spent far more than Republicans on Spanish-language ads. Since Labor Day, Democratic campaigns and outside groups have spent nearly $3.4 million on Spanish-language TV ads in Nevada, while Republicans have spent $792,000, according to the ad tracking company AdImpact.
“When Latinos get more information, we know they tend to vote more often,” Rocha said.
Democrats closely watching the battle for the state Senate believe Rosen’s early and continued Spanish-language ads have widened her lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown, an Army veteran. Brown performed specifically among Latinos under Trump in a recent Cook Political Report poll with Amy Walter.
On the ground
“We don’t just win it on TV. We’re taking it to where people are,” Titus said, pointing to the phone banking as evidence of the Democrats’ operation on the ground.
Rosen’s allies at the house party said her support of the Latino community was crucial to winning their support.
Christian Vela, who leads an online community known as “La Pulga” and wore a purple Rosen campaign shirt at the event, noted that Rosen helped Latino small business owners obtain crucial loans during the pandemic. And he emphasized that her individual outreach to supporters goes a long way.
“This kind of thing with Jacky Rosen, where she actually goes out into the community, is normal. This is the way she campaigns,” Vela said, later adding, “She is part of the community.”
Rosen and other Nevada Democrats also benefit from the support of the influential Culinary Union, which represents thousands of workers — the majority of them Latino — in the state’s casinos, hotels and food services industries.
But Republicans believe they can reach Latino voters by promoting specific events and outreach, including a weekly “cafecito” social hour, which took place that week outside Cafe Sambalatte in Las Vegas. Next to the cafe, volunteers staffed a turquoise “Latino Americans for Trump” tent with campaign merchandise and a sign-up form for potential volunteers.
Miriam M., a Las Vegas Republican of Mexican descent who declined to share her last name, picked up two yard signs that read “Trump: Secure Border.” Kamala: Open border.”
Miriam said she supports Trump because of the high costs and because she believes the former president is “the real deal.”
“The Democrats, I think they think they have the Latino section in the bag. And you know what? No, you don’t. No, you don’t,’ she said. “Because there are many of us who are aware and who are talking. And we are not stupid.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
