RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — As Brazil prepares to host the Group of 20 summit, it seems unlikely that the leading rich and developing countries will sign a meaningful declaration on geopolitics: Monday and Tuesday’s meeting in Rio de Janeiro is overshadowed by two major wars and the recent election victory of Donald Trump.
Increased global tensions and uncertainty about an incoming Trump administration have dampened expectations for a strongly worded statement on the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Experts expect instead a final document that focuses on social issues such as eradicating hunger – one of Brazil’s priorities – even if it aims to at least mention the ongoing wars.
“Brazilian diplomacy is strongly committed to this task, but to expect a substantially strong and consensual declaration in a year like 2024 with two serious international conflicts is setting the bar very high,” said Cristiane Lucena Carneiro, professor of international relations at the University from Sao Paulo.
After Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rejected far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 re-election bid, there was some excitement in the international community about the prospect of the left-wing leader and shrewd diplomat – who once called Barack Obama “the most popular ‘ mentioned. politician on earth” – host of the G20. Bolsonaro had little personal interest in international summits, let ideology guide foreign policy and clashed with several leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron. Lula took office often quoting the slogan: “Brazil is back.”
Brazil under Lula has returned to its decades-old principle of non-alignment to chart a policy that best protects its interests in an increasingly multipolar world. That means talking to all parties, which experts say has given Brazil a privileged position to host a summit like the G20.
But his government’s foreign policy has sometimes raised eyebrows. A Brazil-China peace plan for Russia and Ukraine does not call for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and has been rejected by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. And Lula caused a diplomatic incident with Israel after it compared its actions in Gaza to the Holocaust.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month and the impending return of an America First doctrine may also hamper the diplomatic spirit needed for broad agreement on divisive issues.
“If we have one certainty, it is Donald Trump’s skepticism towards multilateralism,” Carneiro said.
Two officials from Brazil and one from another G20 country say Argentine negotiators are standing in the way of a joint statement. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Two of them said Argentine negotiators raised several objections to the draft. They strongly oppose a clause calling for a global tax on the super-rich – which they previously accepted in July – and another that promotes gender equality.
Ambassador Mauricio Lyrio, Brazil’s chief negotiator at the G20, told journalists on November 8 that the leaders’ final statement should address the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, but that diplomats were still discussing how to universally acceptable language could emerge.
“The main message is of course that we must achieve peace, not only with regard to these conflicts, but with all conflicts,” he said in the capital Brasilia, adding that Lula’s launch of a global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday was just as is important as the final statement.
“The leaders’ statement will be the crowning achievement. But at the same time, as the President himself has mandated, we have a G20 focused on concrete actions, such as the launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger, with a package of very concrete social programs and innovative mechanisms to provide the necessary resources. for its implementation.”
A former trade unionist from a humble background, Lula made the fight against hunger a priority during his first two terms as president (2003-2010), both at home and abroad. According to a 2014 UN report, the number of undernourished Brazilians has fallen by more than 80% in ten years.
Lula’s hunger alliance is Brazil’s single main target for a G20 declaration to be obtained, said Thomas Traumann, a former minister and political adviser based in Rio.
“Brazil wanted a global agreement to fight poverty, a project to finance the green transition and some consensus on a global tax on the super-rich. Only the first survived,” Traumann said.
President Joe Biden will attend the summit after a stop in Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and then travel to Manaus, a city in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. It will be the first time a sitting U.S. president has set foot in the Amazon, and the purpose of the trip is to highlight “the commitment to environmental protection and respect for local cultures,” according to a Nov. 12 statement from the U.S. Embassy in Brazil.
White House officials emphasize that Biden’s visits to APEC and the G20 will be substantial, with discussions on climate issues, global infrastructure, counter-narcotics efforts and one-on-one meetings with world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. Those officials say Biden will also use the summits to pressure allies to maintain support for Ukraine as the country tries to fend off Russia’s invasion and eyes an end to the wars in Lebanon and Gaza to lose.
According to Danielle Ayres, professor of international relations at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, any commitments Biden makes could be overturned by the next White House administration.
“It would mean that Trump would have to be proactive and say that the US is not going to do something that they signed up for internationally,” Ayres said. “That has a price. It generates uncertainty and a poor image of the international community towards Trump.”
Trump’s election may also cause other countries to view China as a more reliable partner. Xi Jinping’s inauguration of Peru’s Chancay megaport on Thursday was perhaps the clearest sign of Latin America’s reorientation.
A notable absentee from the G20 will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, against whom the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant requiring member states to arrest him, and the Russian delegation will be led by Sergei Lavrov. Israel is not a member of the G20.
“The last G20 meetings were somewhat exhausted and became just a new moment for bilateral meetings of heads of government. Now that Putin is gone, Lula has made sure that Ukraine is not a topic of conversation, nor is Israel. But Trump’s election denies Lula the opportunity to become the star on stage,” said Traumann.
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Associated Press writer Gabriela Sá Pessoa contributed from Sao Paulo.
