A generation ago, in another sport, Reggie Jackson cemented himself as Mr. October.
Josh Allen is doing everything he can to lay claim to Mr. December. He dominates again in the fantasy playoffs and takes an eraser to the history books.
Allen’s absurd play of late has been impossible to miss. He posted the best fantasy quarterback performance of all time against the Rams in Week 14 (51.88 points) and then backed it up with a 41.28 explosion in Detroit last Sunday. No quarterback has ever scored more fantasy points in a two-game sample, and it’s the fifth-best fantasy two-pack (regardless of position) of all time.
Now Allen can set himself the goal of becoming the best December fantasy star ever. The top of the standings is easily within reach, and I doubt the Patriots and Jets will slow him down over the next two weeks.
It’s fun to lose yourself on Stathead, the search engine of the indispensable Pro-Football Reference. I ran a search for the best cumulative fantasy standard score (meaning no points for receptions) for a month of December, and the results were interesting.
Allen’s 2024 run already ranks 11th all-time despite being one or two games behind those at the top. Allen has also been on this list twice before, in 2018 (13th all-time) and 2020 (15th all-time). No wonder they call this man The Winter Soldier. Something about Allen’s game is starting to take off at the end of the season.
The simplest explanation comes from Allen’s rushing chops. His rushing yards per game jump every month over his career, as such: 30.3 yards in September, 32.1 in October, 41.4 in November, 45.3 in December. He also has 22 rushing touchdowns in December games, compared to 40 combined in the other three months.
As the snow trickles down, Allen heads to town.
Allen is having this monster run and MVP season despite regular help in the pass-catching room. By far Mack Hollins leads this team in touchdown catches, a modest five. Khalil Shakir has been a fantasy hit, WR26 in PPR at half points, but Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid and midseason addition Amari Cooper (16-231-1 on 27 goals since joining the team) are all considered disappointments .
Some of the shortcomings are related to injuries, although we should also mention the width of the target tree. It doesn’t matter. Allen has shown that he can carry this unit on his shoulders.
Most of the December stars Allen is chasing in that ranking are running backs. Marshall Faulk (first, fourth) charted twice in the Greatest Show on Turf Days. Larry Johnson (10th) took over the Kansas City backfield in mid-2005 (Priest Holmes was injured) and single-handedly drove most of his managers to the fantasy finals, if not a championship. Clinton Portis (fifth, 2002) was a gas when healthy. LaDainian Tomlinson (sixth, 2003), Steven Jackson (second, 2006), Adrian Peterson (seventh, 2012), Todd Gurley (ninth, 2017); they all ruled the fantasy world.
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The two quarterbacks before Allen used different cards to get there. Peyton Manning’s best past year was the ridiculous 2013 campaign, when he threw a record 55 touchdown passes in his second season in Denver. The Seahawks were cautious about using Russell Wilson as a rookie, but during his stretch drive in 2012, he won fantasy titles with his legs (including 92 yards rushing and three touchdowns in Week 15). It was fun to see Wilson revive his career in Pittsburgh, but it’s nothing like the electric player he was in Seattle until his 20s.
The December list is not friendly to receivers, fantasy football’s variance position. The quarterback and running back scores are much more stable week to week, which plays well in this type of ranking. If you go by the standard score, we only see a cumulative December receiver like Drew Bennett (61st, 2004) and Odell Beckham Jr. (65e, 2014). Switching to full PPR scores, OBJ jumps to seventh and Bennett becomes 14th. Marvin Harrison Sr., Eric Decker and Josh Gordon all crash into the top 20.
Much has been made of how this fantasy season has been defined by veteran running backs, but don’t forget what the brand’s quarterbacks have to offer. Lamar Jackson is currently No. 3 on the Yahoo MVP list – the frequency with which a player appears on the top 500 Yahoo Public League teams. Allen is sixth, Joe Burrow 16th and Jalen Hurts 20th. You won’t find a quarterback of value until Baker Mayfield is at 36th.
When I’m putting together teams in the summer months, I don’t spend too much time looking ahead to December or tightening the schedule, things like that. The NFL is a snow globe league and too many variables for December are simply not known months in advance. And for several years now, I have been broadly focused on my early choices. That has worked well as a strategy in many seasons.
For many reasons, the EV (expected value) is negative in 2024.
But I’m open to a change in strategy in the coming seasons. I always want a strong running back room – every fantasy manager does, even if they draft using something like Zero RB – and I know their weekly scoring comes with a high minimum. But maybe I should be more open to what a star quarterback can do in the fantasy playoffs. Maybe there’s a lesson in this Allen thing after all.
Or maybe it’s simpler than that. Maybe I just need to make sure I have some more Josh Allen stock on my fantasy teams next year. Just make the playoffs, Josh Allen will take it from there.
There are still two weeks left in December 2024. Pour yourself some eggnog and dial-up buff on your primary screen. We are all witnesses.
