A once politically far-fetched question: can I become president? Joe Biden being replaced at the top of the Democratic Party presidential ticket — has taken on greater urgency after Biden’s stuttering debate performance Thursday night against former President Donald Trump.
The short answer is yes – assuming Biden himself decides to step aside. But if Biden decides not to step aside, the short answer is probably no.
Either way, the process would be complicated and open the door to political turmoil between now and when Democratic delegates meet to vote on a nominee at their party convention in August.
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Biden has the power to exit the race and release all the pledged delegates he has collected — 3,894 of the 3,937 pledged so far, according to a count by The Associated Press — during his march to the nomination. If he did, those delegates would be free to vote for anyone. That would lead to an open convention, a rarity in modern American politics.
This prospect raises many questions.
If Biden decides to drop out of the race, could he force his delegates to support a candidate of his choice?
No. He could certainly support a successor, and that would mean something. But once the delegates are free, they’re free. Loyalty to Biden, which runs deep, doesn’t automatically extend beyond him. And there could be a floor fight over who emerges as the nominee, highlighting the party’s festering ideological divisions and potentially weakening a prospective Democratic candidate heading into the fall campaign.
What would that mean for Vice President Kamala Harris?
Harris would likely be one of six candidates vying for the presidential nomination, but her standing in the party is in doubt after what many have seen as a shaky tenure and weak polling. She also wouldn’t be assured of the No. 2 spot on the ticket, even if she wanted it, if Biden were to be replaced.
What is the time frame for a decision?
If there is one advantage for Democrats to Biden’s disastrous debate performance, it is that it happened in June, rather than in the weeks before the election, when voice debates are traditionally held.
There is time to take action, which would not have been the case if this had happened during a debate in September.
The nominating convention in Chicago starts on August 19. But the party has approved rules to hold a virtual roll call before August 7, to circumvent an Ohio law that required all presidential candidates to be legally certified by that date to appear on the November ballot. So we’re basically talking about a five-week period.
A total of 3,934 pledged delegates will vote in the first ballot. If a candidate receives a simple majority of 1,968, that person is the nominee.
Should Biden resist pressure to step aside, is there a way the party can take unilateral action to replace him?
Well, never say never. There appears to be some leeway in the party’s official rules. “All delegates to the National Convention who have committed themselves to a presidential candidate must honestly reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” they said.
So in theory—note the words “in good conscience”—it seems like the Democratic Convention could vote for someone else.
But this is not the Democratic Party of 1968, when the rules allowed party bosses to impose their will. In fact, the rules were rewritten specifically to make the party a much freer-flowing organization.
“These are not the old days,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, and an expert on congressional rules and procedures. “There is no such thing as party leaders. There are no people who have the power to take away this nomination.”
“The only way that could happen without Biden’s consent is if a majority of about 4,000 representatives decided that he shouldn’t be the nominee, that they had someone better,” she said.
Who could replace him?
In addition to Harris, the candidates are Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; Gov. Gavin Newsom of California; Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois; and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Also of note are Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey.
What happens if Biden withdraws after the convention?
The Democratic National Committee’s official procedures for the 2022 convention, adopted in 2022, give the committee the authority to select a new nominee if one of its slate members (the presidential or vice presidential nominee) withdraws or dies.
The party’s national chairman, Jaime Harrison, would consult with Democratic leaders in Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and prepare a report for the DNC, but the nearly 4,000 committee members themselves would have the final say.
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