Research from the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) shows that provinces need to switch from gas to electricity to prepare for the energy transition and subsequently avoid high consumer costs.
The report also shows that changing the energy mix for building heat in homes and businesses – as well as changing energy infrastructure to support the shift from gas to electricity – will be necessary to reduce building emissions and to help achieve Canada’s climate goals.
CCI senior research director Jason Dion said: “Expanding gas infrastructure to heat buildings today would be like investing heavily in a chain of video stores 15 years ago.”
He added: “Energy systems must plan for the reality on our doorstep. The smart approach to protecting consumers and ensuring affordable, reliable energy in the future is to grow the electricity system – not lock in greater dependence on gas.” He commented in a statement published online.
Achieving net-zero emissions in residential, commercial and institutional buildings will require significant reductions in gas consumption in all provinces. For example, compared to current levels, gas consumption is expected to decline by as much as 98% in Ontario and between 70% and 87% in Alberta.
According to the report, hybrid systems, which use gas as a backup to electricity, can serve as a crucial transition phase to full electrification and could remain relevant in certain regions in the long term.
However, hybrid systems will not require large amounts of gas to operate effectively.
If investment in the gas network continues to increase and gas connections remain the default choice for new buildings, the report says the costs of over-built and under-utilized gas infrastructure could fall on the shoulders of governments, shareholders and remaining gas consumers as more people switch to cleaner alternatives.
Kate Harland, research director at the CCI, said: “Regulators are making choices about infrastructure that will impact taxpayers’ costs for decades – but those decisions do not have to take into account climate targets, including achieving net-zero emissions. That major disconnect could cause energy bills to rise in the coming decades.
“Provinces must make forward-looking decisions about investments in energy systems, and they must create plans and policies today to protect consumers in the economy-wide energy transition that is underway,” she added.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Canada has set an ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Energy production and use in Canada are responsible for more than 80% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, with oil and gas production alone accounting for about a quarter, the energy body said.
However, the IEA said in a statement on its website that Canada’s electricity system is already among the “cleanest in the world, with heavy dominance of hydropower and an important role for nuclear energy.”
“Canada Needs Electricity, Not Gas, to Avoid High Costs and Emissions” was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a brand owned by GlobalData.
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