TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation after facing a mounting loss of support both within his party and the country.
Now Trudeau’s Liberal Party must find a new leader as it deals with newly-elected US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose high tariffs on Canadian goods and with Canada’s elections just months away.
Trudeau said Monday he plans to remain prime minister until a new party leader is chosen.
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He failed to recover after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, long one of his most powerful and loyal ministers, resigned from cabinet last month.
Trudeau, the 53-year-old scion of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, became deeply unpopular with voters over a range of issues, including the rising costs of food and housing and rising immigration.
What’s next for Canada?
It is unlikely that a new Canadian leader will be appointed before Trump is inaugurated on January 20.
The political unrest comes at a difficult time for Canada. Trump continues to call Canada the 51st state and has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if the government doesn’t stem what Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US – even as far fewer of them cross the border from Canada then from Mexico, where Trump has also threatened tariffs.
Trump also continues to focus on the US trade deficit with Canada, incorrectly calling it a subsidy. Canada’s ambassador to Washington, Kirsten Hillman, has said the U.S. had a $75 billion trade deficit with Canada last year. But she noted that a third of what Canada sells to the U.S. is energy exports and a shortage occurs when oil prices are high.
If Trump applies tariffs, a trade war is looming. Canada has vowed to retaliate.
When will there be a new prime minister?
The Liberals must choose a new leader before parliament resumes on March 24, as all three opposition parties say they will bring down the Liberal government at the first opportunity with a vote of no confidence, which would trigger an election. The new leader may not be prime minister for long.
In a spring election, the opponent’s Conservative Party would most likely have an advantage.
Who will be the next Prime Minister?
It’s not often that central bank governors are compared to rock stars. But Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada, was seen as just that in 2012 when he was named the first foreigner to serve as governor of the Bank of England since its founding in 1694. The appointment of a Canadian reaped high praise. in Britain after Canada recovered faster than many other countries from the 2008 financial crisis. Along the way, he earned a reputation as a tough regulator.
There are few people in the world who have Carney’s qualifications. He is a highly educated economist with experience on Wall Street who is widely credited with helping Canada avoid the worst global economic crisis of 2008 and helping Britain manage Brexit. Carney has long been interested in politics and becoming prime minister, but has no political experience.
Freeland is also a frontrunner. Trudeau told Freeland last month that he no longer wanted her to be finance minister, but that she could remain deputy prime minister and the point person for U.S.-Canada relations. An official close to Freeland said Freeland could no longer serve as minister knowing she no longer enjoyed Trudeau’s trust. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The person added that it was far too early to make any statements, but said Freeland would meet with her colleagues this week and discuss next steps.
After she resigned, Trump called Freeland “totally toxic” and “not at all conducive to deal-making.” Freeland is a lot of things that seem to irritate Trump: a liberal Canadian former journalist. She is a globalist who sits on the board of the World Economic Forum. Freeland, of Ukrainian descent, is also a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Another possible candidate is the new Treasury Secretary, Dominic LeBlanc. Former Public Safety Minister and close friend of Trudeau, LeBlanc, recently joined the Prime Minister for dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. LeBlanc was Trudeau’s babysitter when Trudeau was a child.
Is it too late for the Liberals?
Recent polls show that the Liberals’ chances of winning the next election appear slim. In the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals trail the opposition Conservatives 47% to 21%.
“Trudeau’s announcement could help the Liberals in the polls in the short term and once a new leader is elected, things could improve further at least for a while, but that wouldn’t be too difficult as they moment so low. in the polls,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal.
“Because Trudeau waited so long to announce his resignation, there will be little time for his successor and the party to prepare for early elections,” Béland said.
Many analysts say conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will form the next government. Poilievre, for years the party’s favorite attack dog, is a firebrand populist who blamed Trudeau for Canada’s cost of living. Poilievre, 45, is a career politician who drew large crowds during his bid to win his party’s leadership. He has promised to eliminate a carbon tax and dismantle the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
