Celtics Mailbag: How will Porzingis’ return impact the rotation? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Kristaps Porzingis’ surprise return on Monday night answered the most popular question to start the Celtics’ 2024-25 season, and if anyone was questioning Boston as the favorite to repeat, they may have gotten a pretty clear answer there, too.
But Porzingis’ return does raise a new set of questions about how his presence will impact the team on the field, as well as the future use of the squad.
Those questions head our latest installment of the Celtics Mailbag:
With KP’s return, will we see the rotation shrink? Manage fewer Luke Kornet/Neenias Queta minutes, or Al Horford minutes? — @HevD32 on X
Which of these three should get DNP-CDs if we let Horford and KP falter for the rest of the year? Xavier Tillman Sr., Luke Kornet or Neemias Queta. — @trillklinton on X
I find it funny how quickly the conversation changes from, “Should the Celtics trade for another big man?!” to “How can they ever play all these greats!?”
The Celtics are fortunate to have the great depth they possess, and while I think it will be harder for some of these depth pieces to see consistent floor time, there will be opportunities for all of them during the regular season.
Here are a few scenarios to look out for:
Playoff rotation games: We’ve seen Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla pivot to an eight-man rotation in some big games this season, including Sunday’s visit of the Minnesota Timberwolves and last week’s showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. On these nights, if Boston is fully healthy, two of those three depth pieces will almost certainly get DNPs, and perhaps all three if Boston doesn’t need minutes from another backup.
Back-to-back games: Even with Porzingis’ return, the Celtics’ schedule has some busy periods, especially in January. But Boston also plays five games in seven nights starting in December, which is bookended by two back-to-backs.
Presumably Porzingis and Horford will spread out their rest days – although it will be interesting to see if Boston will challenge both bigs for that visit to Cleveland on Sunday – and that will obviously create bigger opportunities for Kornet, Queta and Tillman. Some of the choices on those nights may be matchup dependent.
One thing we’re curious about is: With Porzingis back, would the Celtics still elevate Horford to the starting role on nights when KP isn’t playing, or will they start someone like Kornet or Queta on the spot to maintain the club’s continuity? Horford’s long-term role?
It becomes undeniably more difficult to play even two of those players on nights when the Celtics have their entire top eight available. However, the season is still long. There will be other ailments (hopefully minor), and everyone gets a chance along the way.
Thanks to Queta, who, after getting a DNP in that Timberwolves game, really seemed to bring the intensity and focus against the Clippers while backing up Porzingis. That was perhaps Queta’s best all-around night, as he collected 12 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and three assists in +29 playing time over 25:17. If he plays like that, they will find time for him to be on the field.
Wondering if we’ll see a slight dip in Payton Pritchard’s minutes now that Porzingis is back in the lineup? PP is currently playing the sixth most minutes on the team at 27.3 per game. — @CelticsFiles on X
Pritchard averaged 22.3 minutes per game last season. We did the splits and that number was 21.3 minutes in 57 games with Porzingis, compared to 24.4 minutes in the 25 games without him. So it seems reasonable to expect perhaps a slight decline.
That said, Pritchard has earned the right to log more than 25 minutes per game with his play. Particularly with the Celtics being cautious with their bigs, I think there’s still plenty of opportunity for him to stay north of that mark. You can also free up more time for bench players if the starters dominate their minutes more consistently.
Are the Cs in a position to make trades, and are there any trades they should consider? — @bpothier on X
Let’s start with a little housework: Kornet, Queta, and Tillman are all eligible to trade on December 15. Sam Hauser, after signing an extension this offseason, will join that trade-eligible mix on Jan. 21. Technically, Derrick White is eligible for trade in January. Also, but he’s not going anywhere. We should also note that Kornet can technically veto any trade after signing a one-year deal at a minimum salary.
I don’t think the Celtics will ruin their chemistry and cohesion with a chance to chase a second title. Heck, it’s hard to imagine moves that make sense for Boston, especially with the limitations they face with second-platform status. Tougher decisions about the long-term look of this roster can wait until the summer.
The only question we’ve had is about Jaden Springer. The 22-year-old guard carries a cap hit of $4 million, the eighth-highest salary on the team. Given his limited role on the court, the Celtics would have to be all-in on his development to land a contract that essentially costs $16 million after tax penalties. Springer will be a restricted free agent after this season.
Considering the cost of the roster, Springer’s deal might not be an issue. But he is also one of the few trade chips that can return something above the minimum value at the deadline. Remember, the Celtics cannot collect contracts in a trade as a second-platform team.
If the Celtics are healthy, it’s hard to see a clear need. That could change before February, but we wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of Brad Stevens’ quieter deadlines given the priority of keeping this team largely intact.
Should we expect the Celtics defense in the paint and offense to improve with KP returning, or is it a bigger problem that we’re not seeing? — @JSmall3269 on X
Steals from our Porzingis story on Tuesday: Boston ranks 24th in the NBA while allowing opponents to shoot 65.6 percent from within 6 feet in the 17 games this season without Porzingis. That number plummeted to 51.5 percent in Porzingis’ debut against the Clippers. Boston can gamble more with Porzingis on the backline, and that manifested in a total of 21 steals and blocks, the team’s second-highest stock output of the season.
Points in the paint are still an obvious problem for Boston — the Clippers won that battle 58-46 on Monday night — but we’ll continue to shout from a mountaintop that it’s far more important for Boston to limit its 3-point output than placing too much emphasis on the internal score.
Yes, it’s a problem, and one that should improve with Porzingis’ return. But the Celtics will forever be okay with giving up 2s instead of 3s as they force their opponents to deal with the math problem that Boston’s own 3-point barrage presents.
The Celtics ranked ninth in opponent points in the paint last season (47.7). They are currently 26th (53.2). Let’s see what a month of healthy KP does to that number. But it’s clear that Boston is doing just fine, even with the spike.
What’s your favorite ShotCreator find so far? – (Okay, I came up with this question myself)
We’re nerds for new NBA stats sites, and ShotCreator.com is a fantastic addition to the landscape, especially with the seamless video integration that makes the NBA’s own archive look like it’s stuck in the Geocities days.
Our favorite stat from the past few days: Derrick White is shooting 78.9 percent on all shots between 8 and 16 feet this season. That includes shooting 7-of-9 on all floats, which confirms our suspicion that he’s been nearly perfect with that long floater this season (and somehow he’s only 9-of-16, 56.2 percent on all floats within 8 feet).
Click HERE to view all of White’s long-distance floats.
