Celtics-Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals preview, odds and prediction

Celtics-Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals preview, odds and prediction originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The 2024 NBA Finals matchup is set: the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will face off with the Larry O’Brien Trophy on the line.

The Celtics are in the finals for the second time in three years, following a 12-2 victory in the Eastern Conference playoffs, including a sweep of the Indiana Pacers in the conference finals. The Mavericks are back in the Finals for the first time since 2011 after defeating three 50-win teams in the Western Conference playoffs. Dallas eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals in five games.

This series does not lack compelling storylines. The star power is enormous. Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Mavs guard Luka Doncic are among the top five players in basketball and were both recently named to the All-NBA first team. Boston guard Jaylen Brown is an All-NBA caliber player who is playing the best basketball of his career. He was the MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics big man Al Horford is looking for his first championship ring in Year 17. Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd is trying to become the 13th person to win a title as a player and head coach. He would be the sixth to win as a player and head coach for the same team.

Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played since Game 4 of the first round due to a calf injury. Getting him back in the lineup for the finals would be a huge boost for the C’s. If Porzingis does play, he must be highly motivated to beat his former team.

And of course, Kyrie Irving’s return to Boston will be a big talking point heading into the series. Irving is a top scorer with championship-winning experience. He also played two seasons for the Celtics, in 2017-18 and 2018-19. He left the team in 2019 as a free agent, despite telling fans at an event before the 2017-18 season that he planned to re-sign. Irving also stomped on the Celtics’ iconic logo at center court as a player for the Brooklyn Nets in the 2021 playoffs. Even though it’s been five years since Irving left Boston, he’ll likely still be the biggest villain for Celtics fans in this series.

Will the Celtics move past the Lakers and win an 18th league championship, or will the Mavericks pull off another upset and claim the franchise’s second title in 14 seasons?

Here’s a complete preview of the Celtics-Mavericks game.

Series schedule

The NBA Finals begin Thursday, June 6 at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics have home field advantage, which they didn’t have in their last two Finals games in 2010 and 2022.

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Regular season against each other

Jan. 22 in Dallas: Celtics 119-110

March 1 in Boston: Celtics 138-110

Story of the band

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The Celtics will win the series if…

They continue to excel in clutch situations.

Clutch ramping has been an issue for the Celtics at times in the regular season and in previous playoff runs. But that hasn’t been the case thus far in the 2024 playoffs. In fact, the Celtics have been the league’s best clutch team through three rounds.

Boston put on a clutch clinic in the Eastern Conference Finals. The C’s earned three clutch wins in their four-game sweep of the Pacers, and their stats during the clutch moments were incredibly positive.

Whether it was hitting key shots (like Jaylen Brown’s 3-pointer to force overtime in Game 1) or playing great defense (like Jrue Holiday’s huge steal late in Game 3), the Celtics dominated at the end of games in the conference finals. Holiday has played a huge role in Boston’s success on both ends of the floor. His championship experience is super valuable to this team.

Can the Celtics thrive in the clutch on the sport’s biggest stage? It will be a major factor in the outcome of the series. The Mavericks have two of the best closers in the league in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, both of whom are capable of completely taking over when the game is on the line.

The Mavericks will win the series if…

The supporting cast performs.

Stopping Doncic and Irving will be difficult. They are two of the best attacking players of their generation. They averaged 59.4 points per game in the Western Conference Finals. Both guys show up.

But who else on the Mavericks will be a consistent threat offensively? Doncic and Irving are the only Mavericks players to score more than 14 points per game in the playoffs.

PJ Washington is an X-factor. He was inconsistent from beyond the arc in the playoffs. He shot 31.3 percent from 3-point range in the first round, then improved to a scorching 46.9 percent in the conference semifinals, and back to 25 percent in the conference finals. Which Washington will get Dallas in the finals?

Derrick Jones Jr. scored 22 points in the Game 6 clincher against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round. He scored a total of 37 points in five games against the Timberwolves. Maxi Kleber returned to the lineup for Game 4 of the conference finals after missing the previous nine games. He is able to get hot from a range of 3 points.

Daniel Gafford and rookie center Dereck Lively are also capable of putting up more than 10 points on any given night.

The Mavericks need one or more of these players to provide consistent secondary scoring if they want to match the Celtics’ offensive firepower. Boston is the highest scoring team in the playoffs with 111.4 points per game.

Chances

Sportsbooks have the Celtics as the favorite to win the series.

Prediction

Celtics in six.

The Celtics have the best starting five in basketball, an elite offense and an elite defense. Boston is capable of beating Dallas without Porzingis, but if the star center returns, the Celtics’ scoring depth and interior defense will be even better.

Not only do the Celtics have home field advantage, they are also dominant on the road. The C’s will take an eight-game playoff win streak into Game 1 of the Finals. Boston’s vast improvement in clutch situations is another reason to be optimistic about its chances in this series.

The last four wins are always the toughest, and the Celtics will be under immense pressure to get the job done, especially as favorites. The Celtics have been the best team all season and will finally silence the critics by winning their 18th championship in just a few weeks.