Celtics-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals preview, odds and prediction originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The match for the Eastern Conference Finals has been announced. The Boston Celtics will take on the Indiana Pacers with their participation in the 2024 NBA Finals on the line.
This marks the seventh time in playoff history that these teams have faced each other. All previous six series were in the first round and the Celtics won four of them.
The Celtics will start this series well rested. They eliminated the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the second round on May 15. They had five days of rest before Game 1 on Tuesday. The Pacers had to overcome a 3-2 series deficit and win a Game 7 on the road at Madison Square Garden to eliminate the New York Knicks in the second round.
The C’s are used to this phase and the pressure that comes with it. They are making their sixth conference finals in the last eight years. The Pacers are in the conference finals for the first time since 2014.
The Pacers have a number of young players filling key roles, led by 24-year-old star Tyrese Haliburton. But this group does have a number of important veterans with a lot of experience.
Myles Turner is in his ninth season. Pascal Siakam is in his eighth campaign and has played 66 career playoff games. He was one of the Toronto Raptors’ best players during their 2019 championship run. Backup point guard TJ McConnell is a nine-year veteran. And head coach Rick Carlisle won a title as a player (1986 Celtics) and has coached 140 playoff games. He was the head coach of the Dallas Mavericks when they won the 2011 NBA Finals.
The Pacers had no fear in Game 7 at MSG. They had no fear on their run to the championship game of the season tournament. You can bet they won’t be afraid of the Celtics either.
Both teams are almost at full strength. The Pacers have no significant injuries. The Celtics reportedly won’t have Kristaps Porzingis to start the series.
Here’s our full preview of the conference finals, including a series prediction.
Series schedule
The Eastern Conference finals begin Tuesday in Boston. There is only one rest day between each match.
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Regular season against each other
Jan. 8 in Indiana: Pacers 133, Celtics 131
January 30 in Boston: Celtics 129, Pacers 124
Story of the band
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The Celtics will win the series if…
They closed Tyrese Haliburton.
There are many ways the Celtics can win this series, but taking out the Pacers’ best player and best playmaker is a good way to start. Haliburton did not play well against the Celtics in the regular season.
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The Pacers have lost five games so far in the playoffs. Haliburton averaged just 15.6 points and 7.2 assists in those losses.
The Star Point Guard isn’t an elite scorer, but he has the potential to dominate offensively if not defended at a high level. Haliburton dropped 26 points on 10-for-17 shooting (6-for-12 from 3-point range) in the Pacers’ Game 7 win over the Knicks. He scored 34 points in Game 2 and 35 points in Game 3.
Haliburton is one of the Pacers’ top scorers and primary ballhandler. If the Celtics can make him uncomfortable and force him to defend, the Pacers’ offense won’t be as effective. Luckily for the Celtics, they have plenty of quality perimeter defenders to deploy on Haliburton, including Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday.
The Pacers will win the series if…
They shoot out the lights and win a high-scoring series.
Let’s be honest: the Pacers’ defense is really bad. But they can score as well as any other team in the league, and that is their path to defeat in this series. Indiana shot 67.1 percent in Game 7 against the Knicks, setting a new single-game playoff record.
The Pacers led the league in points scored (123.3 per game), assists (30.8 per game) and field goal percentage (50.7) during the regular season. They were also quite powerful in the play-offs, scoring a league-best 112.9 points per game through two rounds. Indiana also leads the postseason in field goal percentage (49.4) and ranks fifth in 3-point percentage (37.1).
The Pacers’ offense isn’t heavily reliant on one player either. Siakam leads the way with 21.2 points per game in the playoffs, but Haliburton (18.3) and Turner (17.6) can also carry the load. Indiana has seven players averaging more than 10 points per game in the playoffs.
The Celtics are a very good defensive team. But the Pacers still managed to score 116.8 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting in the five head-to-head games during the regular season. Indiana also played at an excellent pace, averaging 97.2 shots per game.
If the Pacers want to win this series, they need to pick up the pace and score more than 115 points per game. It will be a challenge, but certainly not an impossible mission for this group.
Chances
Sportsbooks have the Celtics as heavy favorites to win the series.
Prediction
Celtics in five.
The Celtics have the edge in talent, depth and experience. They also have home field advantage. The Pacers shouldn’t be taken lightly, but it’s hard to imagine them playing the kind of defense necessary to pull off a shocking upset.
