Democratic challengers have a narrow lead over Republican incumbent senators in polls released Tuesday ahead of the San Joaquin Valley congressional elections.
The surveys indicate that turnout in these House districts, which typically have low voter engagement, will be the deciding factor in who wins in November. The polls showed the races to be extremely close, with both within the margin of error.
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These House races are two of the most competitive in the country in 2024, independent analysts say. California’s 13th and 22nd congressional districts — located in the state’s politically purple, agricultural heartland — feature rematches from 2022. That year, California’s results helped secure a narrow House majority for Republicans.
In California’s 22nd Congressional District, former Rep. Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) held a 4.2 percentage point lead over Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford), according to the new California Elections and Policy Polls.
In 2022, a quarter of likely voters did not vote in this newly created congressional district, the pollsters said. In this poll, those new voters favored Salas.
After the 2020 elections, constituencies were redrawn based on census data.
In California’s 13th District, former Rep. Adam Gray, D-Mercedes, led newcomer Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, by 2 percentage points. New voters narrowly supported Gray, while returning voters in 2022 slightly supported Duarte.
According to the polls, undecided voters in the 13th and 22nd districts are expected to vote slightly for the Republican incumbent today.
Researchers conducted polls in six House districts that independent election analysts predict could go either way in November, as well as two Bay Area districts where Democratic primary elections are taking place.
The eight polls of likely voters were conducted from September 14 to 21. The polls, conducted in eight separate counties, each had its own sample size and margin of error. The polls were conducted by researchers from the University of Southern California, California State University, Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona.
The polls also found that Republican voters in most of these closely spaced districts fared better than former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, and Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey among likely voters.
California has some of the most competitive races in 2024 that will be crucial to determining who wins control of the House of Representatives. Democrats would need to flip four seats nationwide to gain a majority.
Farmer-then-freshman Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes in California’s 13th in 2022, one of the closest House races that year. The district, which includes all of Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin Counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
It would have voted for President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020 by 11 percentage points if the current congressional maps had been in place. Legislative districts were redrawn after the 2020 election based on census data.
In California’s 22nd-place race, Valadao defeated Salas by 3 percentage points in 2022. California’s 22nd-place race, which also has more registered Democrats than Republicans and where Biden would have been elected by 13 percentage points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties.
Both the 13th and 22nd constituencies have Latino voters.
Compared to other counties in California, every county tends to have low voter turnout, meaning that older, white, conservative voters there disproportionately influence elections. This trend has historically been true even in November presidential elections, when turnout is typically highest here.
