Major conferences equal complicated tiebreakers.
That’s the biggest takeaway from the 2024 college football season, as none of the four remaining power conferences are divisive. And since each conference has at least 16 teams, it is impossible for one team to play every other team in the conference.
Just look at the SEC. There could be a six-way tie for two spots in the conference title game, or a five-way tie for one spot. And with Alabama beating Georgia beating Tennessee beating Alabama and teams like Ole Miss and Texas A&M also involved in the tiebreaker, it’s impossible to use head-to-head matchups to determine a winner.
Here’s a quick look at who’s still in contention for the Power Conference title with two weeks left in the regular season. The ACC and Big Ten are relatively simple. The same can’t be said for the Big 12 and the SEC.
ACC
1. SMU (9-1, 6-0 ACC)
2. Clemson (8-2, 7-1)
3. Miami (9-1, 5-1)
The ACC’s title scenario is the clearest of all the power conferences. SMU is guaranteed a spot in the conference title game even if it goes 1-1 in its remaining ACC games against Virginia and Cal. Miami, meanwhile, must win both games against Wake Forest and Syracuse to play for the conference title.
Clemson will only participate if SMU or Miami finish the season with two conference losses. Thanks to the loss to Louisville – a team that defeated both SMU and Miami – the Tigers lose every two- or three-team tiebreaker with a 7-1 tiebreaker against the ACC’s common opponent.
Big 12
1. BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12)
2. Colorado (8-2, 6-1)
3. Arizona State (8-2, 5-2)
3. Iowa State (8-2, 5-2)
5. Baylor (6-4, 4-3)
5. Kansas State (7-3, 4-3)
5. TCU (6-4, 4-3)
5. Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3)
5. West Virginia (5-5, 4-3)
The Big 12 mathematically has more teams in contention for the conference title than any other power conference. It’s still possible, though incredibly unlikely, that two 6-3 teams could meet in the championship game.
For now, we’ll ignore that scenario because there are still too many variables at play. Both BYU and Colorado should lose on Saturday. The easiest way to determine the title game participants is to have the Cougars and Buffaloes win. That’s the matchup if they finish the season at 8-1. If there are tiebreakers to determine the two participants, the teams’ record against common opponents will come into play.
BYU is an underdog in Arizona State this weekend. If the Sun Devils win, they will be in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona in the final week of the season thanks to Kansas. ASU defeated Kansas, while the Jayhawks earned wins over both BYU and Iowa State.
If there is a four-team tie at 7-2 and Colorado loses to Kansas, Arizona State would likely play Iowa State for the conference title. The Sun Devils would have an edge among regular opponents thanks to, you guessed it, that win over KU. If Colorado beats Kansas and loses to Oklahoma State, the Buffaloes will play Arizona State if there is a four-team tie.
Big Ten
1. Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)
2. Indiana (10-0, 7-0)
3. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
4. Penn State (9-1, 6-1)
We’ll have a lot more clarity on the Big Ten title race after Indiana and Ohio State play on Noon ET on Sunday. Oregon is already in the Big Ten title game after its win at Wisconsin. It’s a three-on-one scenario to see who plays the Ducks.
The winner of Saturday’s game in Columbus has a huge advantage for that spot, while Penn State trails. Whoever wins the top-five matchup will enter the title game with a win in the final week of the season. Indiana has cellar-dweller Purdue to close out the season, while Ohio State has its annual rivalry game with Michigan. An 11-1 Penn State needs Ohio State to win and lose to the Wolverines on Saturday to beat Indiana via a tiebreaker involving the winning percentage of each team’s opponents.
SEC
1. Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
1. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1)
3. Georgia (8-2, 6-2)
4. Tennessee (8-2, 5-2)
5. Alabama (8-2, 4-2)
5. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
What if all six teams mentioned above finish 6-2? It’s not impossible. If either Texas or Texas A&M lose on Saturday and this week’s loser wins the game between the two teams on Nov. 30, both teams will be 6-2. Tennessee will likely be favored over Vanderbilt in the final week of the season, and Alabama and Ole Miss are favored in their final two games.
In that situation, the SEC would break the tie via the conference records of the six teams’ SEC opponents. So far, Alabama and Texas A&M have the edge, while Tennessee and Ole Miss are at a serious disadvantage.
If both Texas and Texas A&M win Saturday, the winner of their renewed rivalry will be in the SEC title game thanks to a 7-1 record. And Alabama would again appear to have the edge in a three-or-more-team tiebreaker at 6-2 due to the record of its conference opponents.
