For the second time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, a conference will welcome back the same four teams for the divisional round of the playoffs as the year before.
The matchups are different than they were a year ago. The Houston Texans took on the Baltimore Ravens last season and will meet the Kansas City Chiefs this time. The Ravens get the Buffalo Bills, who lost to the Chiefs in the divisional round a year ago. But the teams are known. All four also repeated as division champions.
The Texans were the shakiest of the four teams after some struggles in the second half of the season. The chefs? Since Patrick Mahomes became their starter, they appear to have a permanent home in this round, and the next round for that matter.
The matchup
No. 4 Houston Texans (11-7) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
4:30 PM ET Saturday
How to watch Texans at Chiefs
The game will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Betting
It’s no surprise that the Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite at BetMGM. They are the second biggest favorites of the divisional round. The total is 42. The Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites in the first meeting between the teams in Week 16, and the Chiefs covered the spread with a 27-19 victory.
X factor
Over the past two seasons, Trent McDuffie has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He plays a big role in a very good Chiefs defense, and he’s especially important this week against the Texans’ narrow passing tree. After injuries to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, the Texans practically get Nico Collins and some blind hope. Collins is one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he struggled against the Chiefs in their first meeting in Week 16. He had just 60 yards on seven catches. McDuffie played a big role in that. Collins saw four targets when McDuffie was in primary coverage, and he had three catches for just five yards on those plays, according to Pro Football Focus. McDuffie also had an interception in that game. McDuffie may not shadow Collins the entire game, but he will play a big role in limiting the Texans’ only dangerous receiver.
How the Texans can win
The Texans have one big advantage, and that is their edge rushers. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both had excellent seasons. The Texans’ pass rush was great against the Chargers last week. The Chiefs’ biggest offensive problem all season has been their tackling. It got so bad that they moved left guard Joe Thuney to left field late in the season. Thuney played well there because he’s an All-Pro level performer, but it’s still not his natural position. DJ Humphries returned from injury and played in Week 18, but he has only played two games all season after being added midseason. The Chiefs have not said whether Thuney or Humphries will start at left tackle. No matter who starts where on the Kansas City line, the Texans need to win that game and do so emphatically.
How the Chiefs can win
It wasn’t long ago that the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. The Texans were trailing just 17-16 in that game when Tank Dell scored a touchdown, but Dell’s horrific injury shook the Texans clearly woke up and also deprived them of a key playmaker. Then the Chiefs pulled away. A big factor in that game for KC, and late in the season as a whole, was rookie Xavier Worthy. Worthy had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs’ path to winning that game wasn’t complicated: They ran the ball effectively, Patrick Mahomes had an efficient day, Worthy was highlighted and the defense played well, including two interceptions from Texans QB CJ Stroud. The Texans need to play a really, really good game against the Chiefs to win. Kansas City should win if it just plays like it normally does.
Prediction
In Patrick Mahomes’ first six seasons as Chiefs starter, they played in six AFC championship games. The last time an AFC title game didn’t include the Chiefs, the starting quarterbacks were Tom Brady and Blake Bortles. It seems almost inevitable that Mahomes and the Chiefs will make it seven-on-seven. The Texans played a good game against the Chargers last week, but were still 4-5 in the second half of the season and have already lost once this season at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs only lost one game the entire season they tried, and that came to a very good Buffalo Bills team. The Chiefs’ quest for a third straight Super Bowl win isn’t something NFL fans have rallied around. There is serious fatigue in Kansas City. But it doesn’t seem like their run will end this week. Chiefs 28, Texans 17
