No one can blame Dabo Swinney if he has a knowing grin on his face this week.
His Clemson Tigers will visit Florida State on Saturday in a game once expected to be not only a marquee game in the ACC, but a litmus test for running a program in the modern era.
The marquee is gone – FSU is 1-4 and starting a backup quarterback.
However, the litmus part is still there. These are two programs with different philosophies that may be headed in different directions – they’re just not the directions most would have believed they would be heading into this season.
Clemson is 3-1 and ranked 12th in the country, having dusted itself off and looking great after an opening week loss to Georgia. That result led to widespread criticism of Dabo’s aversion to using the transfer portal to strengthen the squad.
Florida State, meanwhile, has had a disastrous start to a season that should see it following the momentum of last year’s regular-season campaign (13-0). A year ago, the transfer portal paid off in a big way for coach Mike Norvell. This time it was a failure, leaving the program reeling and the top recruits fleeing their verbal commitments.
Does that turnaround justify Swinney’s decision to stick with homegrown talent? (The only other programs that didn’t transfer last offseason were Army, Navy and Air Force.)
Maybe. Or maybe not, especially at the national championship level where the Tigers once operated. It does suggest that if his approach can’t provide a championship-level ceiling, it does provide a high floor. Dabo’s worst season came a year ago, when the Tigers went 9-4. That seems pretty appealing right now if you’re in Tallahassee.
“I definitely think everyone is surprised at where their record is, [but] you have to give the other teams some credit too,” Swinney said. “They’ve played good teams, you know?”
The Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis and SMU. They beat Cal by five. This is not what anyone could have imagined. Now they host a great Clemson team without their starting QB, DJ Uiagalelei, the one-time Clemson starter who Norvell brought in as a transfer from Oregon State. The task will fall to Brock Glenn.
“Football is hard,” Swinney said. “It’s a difficult game. You’ve heard me talk about it a lot – a few plays here or there can really affect the psyche of a team, the self-confidence of a team. Go ahead, and before you know it, it’s different.” .
“These kids today are growing up with a lot of noise and a lot of pressure – more than ever before in the history of football, in terms of scrutiny, expectations, criticism and outright negativity,” he continued. “And that is difficult.”
Swinney isn’t wrong, but that also raises the stakes on Saturday.
The perception of a program, both internally and externally, now seems more important than ever. In the age of the transfer portal, any player who loses confidence in the direction things are going can find an easy way out. It could also tighten the pockets of boosters needed to fund NIL collectives.
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In the meantime, Norvell must combat any perception that this is more than a blip on the radar for potential players — both potential transfers and traditional high school recruits. Everything is accelerated these days. Everything is on a razor’s edge.
Saturday could be a nationally televised opportunity for Florida State to change the narrative and provide a dash of optimism. Or it could be an opportunity for Clemson to put its foot on its rival’s neck and attack Doak Campbell. It would put them at 4-1, but also give Dabo more justification for what he’s selling: loyalty to his recruits by not bringing in replacement talent.
Norvell would like to do it the Clemson way – or something like that. Any coach would do that. Developing players over the years, building a long-term culture and relying on veterans and experience is a proven blueprint. The portal was supposed to provide a bridge to the Seminoles until their high school recruiting work replenished the roster.
A perfect regular season – despite the poor playoffs – was expected to pay off. Florida State has always been a desirable and exciting place to play college football. It’s even better when it’s winning and it was winning. Add to that the uncertainty and struggles at rival Florida, and they should have been able to land more than their fair share of Sunshine State talent.
Instead, that all seems to have evaporated in just over a month. In the past month alone, three four-star recruits (two from Florida, one from South Carolina) have opted out of their commitments. FSU’s current recruiting class has just 11 players and is ranked 39th in the nation according to Rivals.com.
There’s still plenty of time until signing day, but again, this isn’t what anyone expected.
The worse high school recruiting is, the more the transfer portal is needed. It may pay off, but it’s a roll of the dice, as FSU has known all too well in recent years.
Clemson, meanwhile, wants to prove that it’s back and getting better, maybe even enough to turn the Georgia loss into a bad day at the office. After six consecutive playoff appearances, it has failed to qualify for the last four. However, in the 12-team era, there are plenty of opportunities to come back.
Saturday could be another step in that direction. And yet another step in a different direction, one that was recently unthinkable for the Seminoles.
