While nothing can top the controversy of Florida State not being selected for the 2023 College Football Playoff, there is still a lot of debate about who should and who should not be there this season.
And no, the expansion to 12 teams has not made it easier.
Some teams are virtual locks for the playoffs at this point. Other teams face a “win or go home” opportunity during conference championship weekend. The others, a handful of teams in the bubble, will need some help from those playing this weekend and from the selection committee… and even then it might not be enough.
Keep reading for the latest on the College Football Playoff: who’s in, who’s out and who needs a miracle.
Who’s in the College Football Playoff?
This is prefaced by saying that no team is a lock for the play-off until the committee announces its final rankings on selection day, Sunday, December 8. Still, the Week 13 rankings all but solidified some teams for the playoff.
When will the final College Football Playoff rankings be released? Date, schedule for 2024 12-team CFP bracket announcement
The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West are in position to receive the guaranteed bids given to the top five conference champions in the rankings. Two of those conference championship games — the Big Ten and SEC matchups — will more than likely be “seeding games,” with the winner getting a first-round bye but the loser not expected to be eliminated from the play- offs. Those games will see it No. 1 Oregon sight No. 3 Penn State in the Big Ten title game and No. 2Texas sight No. 5 Georgia in the SEC title game.
For the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West, these conferences will likely only see their champions enter, with the one possible exception being No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson in the ACC title game – if SMU loses, the Mustangs will still be able to win the sneak into the play-off. The Big 12 matchup will feature No. 15 Arizona State versus No. 16 Iowa State, with the Sun Devils favored. The Mountain West game will feature No. 10 Boise State versus No. 20 UNLV.
Other teams currently on virtual locks include: No. 4 Notre-Dame, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 TennesseeAnd No. 9 Indiana.
That means 11 of the 12 spots in the playoffs are all but settled, leaving one spot still up for grabs (and up for endless debate).
Who isn’t in the College Football Playoff?
There are four bubble teams for the final CFP spot (more on that later), but there are others in the top 25 that were not previously mentioned and have been eliminated from contention. Those teams include No. 18 BYU, No. 19 Missouri, No. 21 Illinois, No. 22 Syracuse, No. 23 Colorado, No. 24 Army and No. 25 Memphis.
The 2024 College Football Playoff bubble teams
The four teams to include in the discussion for the final playoff spot are Nos. 11-14 in the Week 14 rankings: Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. While there is still much debate about who should participate and why, it appears the committee has already made its decision by ranking Alabama at the highest of the four in the latest rankings.
When the Week 14 rankings were released on Tuesday, December 3, he was chairman of the CFP selection committee Warde Manuel said the decision to rank Alabama over Miami came down to the “body of work” of both teams. The 10-2 Hurricanes have lost two of their last three – 28-23 to Georgia Tech (finished 6-4) and 42-38 to No. 22 Syracuse (9-3). Miami narrowly escaped further losses to Virginia Tech (won 38-34), California (39-38) and Louisville (52-45). Meanwhile, the 9-3 Crimson Tide had a rollercoaster season, losing to a volatile Vanderbilt team (40-35), No. 7 (then No. 11) Tennessee (24-17), and most concerning Oklahoma (24). -3). Likely a key factor in that decision, the Tide had a stronger schedule than the Hurricanes, playing four ranked teams and beating, of those ranked matchups, Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. Compare that to the Hurricanes, who dropped their only ranked game to Syracuse.
Then there’s Ole Miss and South Carolina – not on that 11 vs. 12 bubble, but still strong teams with three losses. The Rebels notably defeated No. 5 (then No. 3) Georgia in a 28-10 loss, but they lost to Kentucky, LSU and Florida. South Carolina, one of the best teams in college football to finish the regular season, has won its past six games since losing to Alabama 27-25 in early October. That includes ranked wins over Missouri and, most recently, Clemson, but they also lost to Ole Miss the week before the Bama game and to LSU in September.
How will the 2024 conference championship weekend impact the College Football Playoff?
The conference championship weekend is the most important for the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West conferences, which will likely see only their champions enter. 17 Clemson.) The Big 12 matchup will feature No. 15 Arizona State versus No. 16 Iowa State, with the Sun Devils favored. The Mountain West game will feature No. 10 Boise State versus No. 20 UNLV.
After the Week 14 rankings were announced on Tuesday, Manuel pointed out that because there are no further “data points” to evaluate, it is unlikely that the teams not playing this weekend will be moved other than shifting up and down, depending on how the conference championships go. . Therefore, of the previously discussed bubble teams, it appears that Alabama is the one that will succeed, barring a major shakeup by committee.
How many teams will make the College Football Playoff in 2024-2025?
The College Football Playoff expanded from 4 to 12 teams this season. More about that here.
