Ohio State (11-2) may have suffered a humiliating flag-planting defeat at the hands of their archrival Michigan, but they didn’t let that setback cloud the overall goal of winning the National Championship. They stifled Tennessee’s passing attack (14 of 31, 104 yards, 0-to-0 ratio), preventing the Vols from climbing out of an early 21-0 deficit in the first quarter en route to a 42-17 victory in the first round. Against Oregon, DC Jim Knowles held them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries as OSU opened the game with 5 consecutive explosive touchdowns of 30+ yards before the Ducks even scored a point.
OSU’s devastating offense ranks in the Top 10 in success rate, EPA/play and marginal efficiency on each side of the ball. The main weaknesses on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a blitz down sack rate of 9.2%, and a slightly elevated 10.2% blow run block percentage that ranks 94th nationally.
OSU’s defense is elite and ranks first overall in FBS according to SP+. Their secondary faces the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with only 9.3% of passes occurring more than 20 yards down the field. OSU’s elite defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8% sack rate, forcing teams to rely on quick, structured throws. The Buckeyes are allowing a slightly increased completion percentage of 60.1% (63rd), but still rank third overall in EPA/dropback, so the short-yardage checks and screens haven’t hurt them.
Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas (13-2) in the postseason for the first time since 2009. Although UT ran roughshod over the vast majority of their 22nd schedule, Texas was unable to avenge their only loss to Georgia, which suffered a close defeat. 22-19 decision in the SEC Championship.
In the first round of the CFP Playoff, Texas ran for 292 yards and 6.1 YPC against an overmatched Clemson front to cruise to an easy 38-24 victory. It was a much more competitive double overtime in the quarterfinals against Arizona State, where a late interception and off-target call on the same play gave Texas an advantage late in the game that has ASU fans up in arms. The Longhorns held on to win 39-31 despite being outscored 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, although some of that deficit can be somewhat explained by the game script, with Texas leading 17-3 at the half.
Offensively, the Longhorns rank eighth in SP+, thirteenth in success rate and third in explosive play rate (9.6%). UT also has a top secondary that ranks first in yards per dropback allowed (4.1) and third with an interception rate of 5.2%. They’re also no pushovers in run defense, ranking seventh in EPA/rush, and their pass rush coming home at an 8.8% clip (sixth in FBS).
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Game details and how to watch the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal Texas vs. Ohio State
· Date: Wednesday January 10, 2025
· Time: 4:30 PM EST
· Place: AT&T Stadium
· City: Arlington, Texas
· TV/streaming: ESPN
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Match Odds for 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal Texas vs. Ohio State
*opportunities courtesy of BetMGM
The spread opened Ohio State -6/6.5, just under the key number of -7 after their complete obliteration of Oregon. BetMGM’s +200 is the best odds you’ll get if Texas pulls off an outright upset, while BOL has the best line on OSU at -210. The game total has fluctuated between the 53.5 to 55 range during early trading.
Expert picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Texas
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State hit another gear in the CFP Playoffs, defeating Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38. Texas is coming off a gripping 39-31 double-overtime victory over ASU in a game where they jumped out to a 17-3 halftime lead before rallying their way through the second half. I find it hard to root for the Buckeyes considering the constant pressure they get while only bringing four rushers. I put the -6/6.5 and take the Buckeyes.”
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Quarterback matchup for 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal, Texas vs. Ohio State
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Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most productive quarterback rooms in the country, between starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 66.5% of his throws for 3,189 yards, 7.9 YPA and a 29-to-11 ratio. Despite the respectable numbers, his PFF grade of 73.6 ranks 51st among 94 qualifying FBS signal callers , which is a noticeable drop from his 85.6 figure from 2023. Ewers averages a noticeably low 7.8 air yards per target, which ranks 82nd on the list. top 94 quarterbacks. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative with his play now that he has a clearly elite defense to lean on, with the Longhorns throwing 35.1% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. His PFF pressure grade of 48.6 ranks 52nd out of 89 qualifiers, so Ohio State’s front four will be looked to to bring the heat.
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State of Ohio: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the country. He is completing a surgical 72.6% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is working on future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient passing attack ranks third in success rate (53.4%) and seventh in yards per dropback (8.3), despite completing only 10.3% of their passes over 20 throwing yards further down the field (121st). Howard’s 84th percentile for passing grades ranks 11th among power-four signal callers and is the best mark of his five-year career, with a previous high of 72.7.
Ohio State vs. Texas: betting trends and recent statistics
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Texas is 2-7 (.200) against the spread when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season, 11th worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: .315)
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Quinn Ewers has made just one interception on 123 4th quarter attempts since the 2023 season, second-best among Power Conference quarterbacks
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Texas is 8-7 (.500) against the spread while allowing opponents to rush more than 30 times since the 2023 season, 27th best in FBS. (Average: .425)
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Texas has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion this season, best in FBS.
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Texas has allowed 100.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season, the best in the SEC.
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Texas has allowed 17 rushing TDs on 136 carries in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 2nd best in FBS.
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Quinshon Judkins averaged 6.2 yards from scrimmage per touch in the first half of this season, best among Big Ten Running Backs. TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for more than 20 yards on 18 of his 274 carries since the 2023 season, second-best among Big Ten Running Backs.
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Ohio State opponents have averaged 10.3 passing attempts per TD in the Red Zone this season, best among Power Conference teams. Ohio State’s defense has posted a completion percentage of just 38.7% when defending in the red zone this season, best among Big Ten defenses.
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Ohio State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season – 2nd best among Power Conference Teams;
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Ohio State has not tackled any opponents for a loss on any of 33 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, finishing tied for worst among Power Conference Teams with Rutgers (0-30).
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Will Howard has been sacked 9.0 times on 343.0 pass attempts this season, third most among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
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