It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
Now that this season’s playoffs have been expanded to 12 teams, we’ll be breaking down the expected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as a guide, we’ll rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as a barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have far more similarities than differences by the end of the season. Here’s what the preliminary playoff field looks like after Week 3.
Bye round first round
1. Texas Longhorns (3-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns vaulted Georgia to the top of the AP poll after a blowout win over UTSA. And Arch Manning could be the team’s starter in Week 4, as Quinn Ewers is questionable due to an abdominal injury he suffered against the Roadrunners. Manning was fantastic in his relief performance after Ewers’ injury, running for a TD and throwing for four others. If he starts Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe, we’ll get a matchup of top Louisiana high school quarterbacks in Manning and ULM QB General Booty.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes had an early off week with no games in Week 3. Ohio State’s second off week of the season is Oct. 19, meaning the Buckeyes could play seven straight games to end the season if they reach the Big Ten title game. Marshall comes to Columbus in Week 4 as Ohio State concludes non-conference play before visiting Michigan State in Week 5.
3. Miami Hurricanes (3-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes have stepped up their scoring output each week so far. After dropping 41 points to Florida, Miami dropped 56 points to Florida A&M and then dropped 62 points to Ball State. We doubt that trend will continue on the road against a battle-hardened South Florida team in Week 4. The Bulls held off a scrappy Alabama team for more than three quarters in Week 2 before the Crimson Tide broke the game open.
4. Utah Utes (3-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Utes were without Cameron Rising in Week 3. Freshman QB Isaac Wilson — brother of former BYU QB Zach Wilson — completed 20 of 33 passes for 239 yards and threw three TDs along with an interception in Utah’s 38-21 win over Utah State. Rising could be back in Week 4 after missing the game against the Aggies. And that’s a big deal. The Utes have their first Big 12 game when they visit No. 14 Oklahoma State.
First round matches
No. 12 Northern Illinois (2-0, projected MAC champion) at No. 5 Georgia (3-0, at-large)
The Huskies also had a day off in Week 3, while basking in the glow of their win over Notre Dame. NIU opens MAC play at home in Week 4 against a Buffalo team that was blown out in Week 2 at Missouri. Georgia is the only new team in this bracket, as it drops four spots as the best at-large team. The Bulldogs were unconvincing in a 13-12 win over Kentucky in Week 3. What happens if Kentucky coach Mark Stoops doesn’t play it super conservatively and goes for points from his own 48-yard line on fourth-and-13 with under three minutes left? Georgia probably still wins, but Kentucky has a better shot.
No. No. 11 Oregon (3-0, at-large) at No. 6 Alabama (3-0, at-large)
The Ducks played their best game of the season — by far — in a 49-14 crushing of Oregon State. It was incredibly odd to see that game happen in September and not the weekend after Thanksgiving. Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another as Oregon racked up 546 yards. The Ducks are on a roll in Week 4. Alabama, meanwhile, was also very impressive in a blowout win at Wisconsin. QB Jalen Milroe had five total touchdowns.
No. 10 Penn State (2-0, at-large) at No. 7 Ole Miss (3-0, at-large)
The Nittany Lions have the same schedule as the Buckeyes with an off week in Week 3 and another in Week 8 of this 14-week season. Ole Miss made light work of Wake Forest as the Rebels jumped out to a 20-3 lead in the first quarter en route to a 40-6 win. The Rebels have given up just nine points all season. This could be Lane Kiffin’s most versatile team yet.
No. No. 9 Missouri (3-0, at-large) at No. 8 Tennessee (3-0, at-large)
This matchup is a mixed bag because the Vols surpassed the Tigers in the AP poll. It was hard to disagree with that decision. Missouri pulled off a win over a ranked opponent in a 27-21 victory over previously No. 24 Boston College, but the Tigers got a little too close for comfort in the second half. The Volunteers, meanwhile, crushed Kent State 71-0. Tennessee scored 37 points in the first quarter, with their final score of the period coming on a surprise onside kick that made it 30-0. Even if you’re okay with teams trying to run up the score, you have to think this is a bit harsh.
