SMU or Alabama?
That’s the big dilemma facing the College Football Playoff committee heading into the final set of rankings on Sunday. The Mustangs battled back against Clemson to tie the game with less than 30 seconds left before losing 34–31 to the Tigers on a 56-yard field goal with no time left.
The loss drops SMU to 11-2 and the Mustangs will certainly drop from No. 8 in the rankings. But will they not make the play-offs?
Alabama beat Miami on Tuesday for the final spot in the preliminary playoff field despite a 9-3 record against Miami’s 10-2 record. The Hurricanes lost two of their last three games and ended the regular season with a loss at Syracuse.
It’s easy to see how Alabama could top a two-loss SMU from the same conference given what happened less than a week ago. But we’re not sure the committee wants to open that can of worms. Commission Chairman Warde Manuel on Tuesday evening left open the possibility that SMU would fall under Alabama, but also made it clear that this was far from a guarantee.
“If they drop out if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel said. “What we are going to do is judge them on their performance, look at the match again and have a lot of respect for the teams that are playing. There are 18 teams playing this weekend and we will be watching them all and evaluating the results of those games, and we will see how they move, if they move at all. Like I said in the interview on ESPN two years ago, TCU lost and stayed at No. 3 that year, so those things can happen. People can lose and maybe stay where they are. They could move as we have in other years and drop significantly, or they could drop a little bit. It just depends on the outcome of the match.”
We don’t think Clemson’s win was convincing enough to knock SMU out of the playoffs entirely. Here’s our final prediction of what the playoff field will look like when it’s announced Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.
Goodbye to the first round
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champion)
3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champion)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)
These four teams seem pretty simple. Boise State started the weekend five spots ahead of Arizona State and defeated UNLV by 14 in the MWC title game. Arizona State dominated Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and was two spots ahead of Clemson in Tuesday’s rankings. Clemson didn’t do enough to get a first-round bye and Boise State should stay ahead of Arizona State.
First round matchups
No. 12 SMU (11-2, overall) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, overall)
No. No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2, overall)
No. 10 Indiana (11-1, overall) and No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, overall)
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, overall) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, overall)
This is where things get really interesting. We have SMU in the last spot in the playoff field above Alabama and the Mustangs a spot below Clemson due to the head-to-head loss on Saturday night. It would be strange if the committee had both Clemson and SMU in the field and had the Mustangs ahead of the Tigers.
However, we are not sure whether head-to-head results will apply elsewhere in the first round matches. Texas and Penn State are set to host first-round games following their conference title game losses on Saturday. And we think the committee will keep them ahead of Notre Dame because both losses were by one score. Texas was ranked No. 2 in Tuesday’s rankings, ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
If the top four conference champions were to part ways, those three teams would fall to No. 5-7 in the playoffs, leaving Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee make Penn State part of the state of Ohio without doing the same to Texas?
Placing Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to avoid a rematch or a matchup between teams in the same conference in a first-round matchup. Indiana seems locked in at No. 10 and could play the Fighting Irish instead of Penn State or go to Ohio State again.
