The muddy College Football Playoff picture is slowly becoming clearer.
Week 14 followed a chaotic week 13 with more craziness. No. No. 2 Ohio State lost 13-10 to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite, while No. 6 Miami blew a 21-point lead against Syracuse for its second loss in three weeks.
The way we see it, at least eight teams can be very confident in their playoff hopes come conference championship weekend, while the other four spots could be filled by teams that win their conference title games.
Miami is now the biggest wildcard of the GVB.
Here’s a look at where we see the playoff contenders after the 2024 regular season concludes.
In
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Oregon (12-0)
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Texel (11-1)
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Penn State (11-1)
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Notre Dame (11-1)
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SMU (11-1)
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Indiana (11-1)
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Ohio State (10-2)
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Tennessee (10-2)
Let’s start with the obvious: Oregon is the only undefeated team at the highest level of college football and could lose to Penn State by 42 points in the Big Ten title game and still be safely in the field. Penn State, meanwhile, clinched a spot in the conference championship thanks to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan.
The Buckeyes aren’t playing for the conference title, but are still 10-2 in the field as an at-large. It’s hard to see Ohio State getting past No. 8 after Saturday’s loss. The same goes for Tennessee after the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. UT won’t be playing for a conference title next week, but at 10-2 with a win over Alabama, the Volunteers can feel good about their chances.
Notre Dame effectively clinched its spot in the playoffs with a win over USC and moved to 11-1. Indiana has the same record after beating Purdue. We’re more optimistic about Indiana’s chances than others simply because of the chaos that has unfolded in college football over the past two weekends. There’s no way the committee could leave out a one-loss power conference team given the rest of the CFB landscape.
SMU can clinch a top-four seed with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game, and a loss shouldn’t hurt the Mustangs too much. It’s very difficult to see SMU out of the playoffs.
Texas survived an error-filled second half against Texas A&M to clinch a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia. Even if the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns again in a week, Texas should be in the postseason.
In with a win
We’re pretty sure Georgia will be in the playoffs no matter what happens in Atlanta a week from now. But the Bulldogs are here because we still haven’t gotten a good idea of the committee’s thinking. If it comes down to a two-loss Miami and three-loss Georgia, is the committee guaranteed to pick Georgia?
Clemson lost its third game of the season to South Carolina on Saturday. The only way the Tigers are in the playoffs is if they beat SMU.
Boise State and UNLV will battle for the Mountain West title. If the Broncos win, they have a great chance at number four. If UNLV wins, it might be the No. 12 seed, but it will be in the playoffs.
Arizona State clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game with a blowout win over rival Arizona. The Sun Devils will play either Iowa State or Colorado for the Big 12 spot in the playoffs. Iowa State defeated Kansas State on Saturday night and is in if BYU beats Houston late Saturday night. If BYU loses, Colorado will play Arizona State for the conference title.
On the fence
If SMU beats Clemson, the Hurricanes may be the last team in the field. Miami could have moved into the top tier with a win over Syracuse on Saturday, but the Hurricanes squandered a 21-0 first-half lead in a 42-38 loss. The loss is Miami’s second in the last three games and means they will have to watch the ACC title game and every other conference title game and hope for favorable results.
Living from a prayer
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Alabama (9-3)
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Ole Miss (9-3)
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South Carolina (9-3)
It’s extremely difficult to see a scenario where one of the three three-loss teams from the SEC makes the playoff. All three teams won to end the regular season, but their only hope is to jump to the front of this line and hope the committee drops Miami under them while SMU beats Clemson. That seems very, very unlikely. The only way we see a three-loss team make the playoffs is through a conference championship.
Here are this week’s other winners and losers.
Winners
Michigan: How much does a win over Ohio State cover up a disappointing season for the Wolverines? Michigan is only the second defending champion in 50 years not to win at least eight regular-season games, but Wolverines fans will be at their peak for weeks after a 13-10 win over Ohio State on Saturday. The win dropped Ohio State coach Ryan Day’s record against Michigan to 1-4 and gave Michigan coach Sherrone Moore two wins in two seasons over the Buckeyes following his stint as Michigan’s interim coach a season ago.
Baylor: What a turnaround for the Bears. Baylor was 2-4 after a 43-21 loss to Iowa State and it was worth wondering if coach Dave Aranda would return for the 2025 season. Well, Baylor finished the regular season with a win streak of six games and capped it off Saturday with a 45-17 win over a good Kansas team. Sawyer Robertson was 23 of 31, passing for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Bryson Washington rushed 28 times for 192 yards and two scores, while Dawson Pendergrass had 11 carries for 104 yards.
Duke: What a first season in Durham for Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils scored 20 straight points in the second half en route to a 23-17 victory over Wake Forest. Duke won the game on the final play when Maalik Murphy hit Jordan Moore for a 39-yard touchdown as time expired.
The Blue Devils finished the season with three straight wins after a 22-point loss to Miami and finished tied for fourth in the ACC with Syracuse, Louisville and Georgia Tech.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks are one loss to Alabama away from a lock for the College Football Playoff. It’s been a fantastic season in Columbia, where South Carolina capped a 9-3 season with a 17-14 rivalry victory over Clemson on Saturday. LaNorris Sellers has made an incredible leap during the 2024 season, rushing for two scores on his way to 166 yards on 16 carries against the Tigers.
Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights guaranteed themselves a winning season with a 41-14 victory at Michigan State. The win also denied the Spartans a bowl berth, as Rutgers reeled off 34 straight points after Michigan State took a 7–0 lead. Rutgers’ loss to Illinois in Week 13 could have been extremely demoralizing, but the team instead took advantage of three turnovers after a setback by the Spartans and will have a winning record in three for the first time since George W. Bush’s second term seasons in a row.
Losers
North Carolina: The Tar Heels didn’t give Mack Brown a winning broadcast. NC State became bowl eligible with a 35-30 win at North Carolina on Saturday, when a fight ensued on the field after the game as NC State players attempted to plant a flag at midfield, as Michigan did earlier in the day tried.
UNC fumbled twice and committed nine penalties while being outscored 22-10 in the fourth quarter. The winning score came with 25 seconds left when Hollywood Smothers scored his second TD of the game.
North Carolina ends the season at 6-6 and it is unclear whether Brown, who was fired this week, will coach in the bowl game.
Tulan: The Green Wave entered the final week of the season with a chance to make the College Football Playoff and the chance to host the AAC title game against Army. Instead, Tulane’s playoff hopes are gone and it will play Army on Friday thanks to a 34-24 home loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving.
Tulane turned the ball over three times — including on a Mario Williams fumble on a deep completion in the second half — and had just 15 first downs to Memphis’ 26. The Tigers rushed 46 times for 242 yards, while Mario Anderson had 24 carries for 177 yards. yards and a score. Memphis finishes the season 10-2, but missed the AAC title game as both losses came in conference play.
UAB: It was a brutal way to end the season for the Blazers. UAB had a chance to beat Charlotte on the final play of the game, but Jonah Delange missed a 35-yard field goal as time expired. However, a personal foul penalty gave him another chance. And it also made the stairs eight meters shorter. By now you know where we’re going with this. The second kick was also not good and Charlotte won 29-27. UAB finishes the season 3-9 and is now 7-17 in the Trent Dilfer era.
West Virginia: It’s unclear how safe Neal Brown is in West Virginia with Jimbo Fisher looking for work, and it’s hard to see how Saturday’s 52-15 loss at Texas Tech helps Brown’s case. WVU won three of its last five games to become bowl eligible, but was dominated on Saturday. Tech had an offensive margin of 569 yards and was 9 of 12 on third downs. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over three times.